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European mid-sized
pharmaceutical sector
Initiation of coverage – eating your cake and having it too
Global Healthcare
March 2008
Disclosures and Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and analyst
certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it
In this document we are initiating coverage on seven key European mid-sized pharmaceutical
companies: Merck KGaA (Overweight, TP EUR102), NovoNordisk (Underweight, TP DKK305),
Shire Pharmaceuticals (Overweight, TP 1,177p) Actelion (Underweight (V), TP CHF49), Hikma
(Overweight, TP 602p), UCB (Neutral, TP EUR29) and Bayer (Overweight, TP EUR65).
The European mid-sized pharmaceutical sector has significantly outperformed the European
and US big-cap pharma sectors over the last two years (HSBC mid-sized index: +66% in two
years and +20% in the past 12 months).
While the global pharmaceutical industry continues to face significant pressures, including
depressed drug volumes and prices, reduced R&D productivity and increased regulatory
hurdles, the mid-sized sector’s focus on niche indications has, to a significant degree,
insulated it from many of these issues.
We view positive pipeline news flow as more beneficial to mid-sized pharma companies than
to big caps. The question is: will these superior returns attract increased competition from the
larger pharma players?
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