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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月中国制药行业研究报告
【作者】：星展银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：68
【目录或简介】：
Picking the wheat from the chaff
• Multi-year re-rating theme for leading
pharmaceutical stocks will continue, underpinned by
strong growth visibility on greater policy impact
• Rich valuations will limit near-term upside for the
sector; at c.80% valuation premium to the market,
there could be profit-taking in the next 6 months
• Any correction will be opportunity to buy long-term
winners like Sino Biopharm and turnaround plays like
Guangzhou Pharm and Mingyuan
Taking a breather. Top-notch leaders are trading at 40-
50x PE or 1.5x PEG, while some mediocre laggards have
caught up to 15-20x PE or >1x PEG, which already
reflects the hot sector’s euphoria. This is the first time we
believe the sector’s short-term correction risks could
overwhelm upside opportunities since our re-rating
conviction in 2008. The re-rating will take a breather
soon, and be replaced by a period of range-trading.
Picking the winners. Despite increasing risk of a
consolidation, investors should pick winners instead of
throwing out the baby with the bath water, as the rerating
potential of leading pharmaceutical stocks is still
robust. The new healthcare reform will create demand
growth, but the flip side is tighter regulation to revamp
the industry. In this high growth, consolidated sector,
successful selection of long-term winners will be
rewarded by the enormous growth opportunities.
Stock picks. While Sinopharm, Weigao, SBP and
Shineway are believed to be potential long-term winners
in the sector, SBP is our top pick for its outstanding
competence in the high entry barrier patent drug market
in China. We like Guangzhou Pharm and Mingyuan for
their profit turnaround opportunity from 2010 onwards
Table of Contents
Investment summary 3
Our five visionary re-rating themes remain valid 5
Major opportunities and risks in 2010 8
Investment strategy 12
Sector Performance and Valuation 16
Target prices and ratings 20
Focus industrial charts 25
Stock Profiles 30
China Pharmaceutical 30
China Shineway 34
Guangzhou Pharmaceutical 38
Mingyuan Medicare 42
Shandong Weigao 46
Sino Biopharmaceutical 50
Sinopharmaceutical 54
Hua Han Bio-Pharmaceutical Holdings Ltd 58
Lijun International Pharmaceutical Holding Ltd 59
Shandong Luoxin Pharmacy Stock Co Ltd 60
The United Laboratories Ltd 61
Wuyi International Pharmaceutical Co Ltd 62
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