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We had expected 2008 to be a good but dull year for the Asian airlines. The risks to
global growth that have become evident since the start of the year dramatically change
this outlook.
High growth benefits the PRC airlines and Korean Air. In contrast, slower
growth favours Singapore Airlines, Jet Airways and the Taiwanese carriers.
Counter-intuitively, some of the airlines actually tend to outperform as growth slows
and markets decline.
Our top picks are Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific. They are very good value and
are likely to outperform if growth slows. Our key sells are China Eastern,
China Southern and Korean Air. These airlines are overvalued even in a high growth
scenario and face a dismal outlook if growth slows.
Turbulence ahead
Time to board or bail the Asian airlines
Disclosures and
目录
Summary 1
January’s events suggest more interesting times 2
Winners and losers 3
Risk aversion 6
Pricing in higher risk 6
Demand and supply 8
Summary 8
Demand forecasts 8
Supply forecast 8
Cost inflation 11
Summary 11
Fuel prices 11
Staff costs 12
Currency 14
Summary 14
How currencies impact airlines 14
Scenario 1 14
Liberalisation and
restructuring 16
Summary 16
Airline restructuring 16
Deregulation 17
Earnings outlook 20
Valuations and ratings 22
Summary 22
Sector outlook 22
Top Buys and Sells 25
Company profiles 29
Air Asia 30
Air China 33
Cathay Pacific 36
China Airlines 39
China Eastern Airlines 42
China Southern Airlines 45
EVA Air 48
Jet Airways 51
Korean Air 54
Malaysia Airlines 57
Singapore Airlines 60
Thai Airways 63
Disclosure appendix 66
Disclaimer 69
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