发帖
雷达卡
European Utilities
Valuations drive a more conservative stance on
renewables; downgrading EDPR to UW, IBR to N
European Utilities
Chris RogersAC
(44-20) 7325-9069
christopher.g.rogers@jpmorgan.com
Javier Garrido
(34-91) 516-1557
javier.x.garrido@jpmorgan.com
Nathalie F Casali
(44-20) 7325-9023
nathalie.x.casali@jpmorgan.com
Sarah L Laitung
(44-20) 7325-6826
sarah.l.laitung@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
For Specialist Sales advice, please
contact:
Ian Mitchell
(44-20) 7325-8623
ian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com
See page 26 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
Figure 1: Wind farm developers relative
to utilities, Jun-08 = 100
60.0
80.0
100.0
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Source: Bloomberg. Average relative performance of
IBR, EDPR & EDF EN
The renewables have outperformed utilities generally by c25% since mid
November on expectations of infrastructure-related stimulus plans, a
reopening of credit markets and their relative political safety. Given
valuations, exposure to lower 2009 power prices and "selling on the news"
of US stimulus plans and 4Q08 load factors, we turn more conservative in
a utilities sector context. We downgrade EDPR from N to UW, IBR from
OW to N and retain EDF EN at Neutral.
• Downgrade EDP Renovaveis to Underweight: With 40% of EBITDA
from the US, EDPR has been a beneficiary of the “Obama infrastructure
trade”. Strong 4Q08 output in Spain (also 40% of EBITDA) will have
helped. The stock now trades at a 8% discount to our Dec-09 SOTPbased
TP of
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