摩根大通：澳大利亚电信行业研究报告2009年4月

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Table of Contents
Implications for stocks under coverage...................................................................................... 4
Executive summary....................................................................................................................... 6
Part 1: Telecom market (Fixed and mobile) ................................................................................ 7
Industry revenue growth of 6% .................................................................................................... 8
Fixed line revenue growth +2%.................................................................................................... 9
Mobile retail revenue growth +11%............................................................................................ 10
Industry growth forecast ............................................................................................................ 11
Total revenue market shares...................................................................................................... 12
Fixed Line Market Shares ........................................................................................................... 14
Mobile market shares.................................................................................................................. 15
Fixed-to-Mobile substitution ...................................................................................................... 16
Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 17
Part 2: Broadband Market........................................................................................................... 19
Broadband Penetration and Growth .......................................................................................... 20
Broadband subscriber Market Share......................................................................................... 22
Incumbent's broadband market share- International benchmarks ......................................... 26
Local Loop Unbundling (ULL and LSS)..................................................................................... 27
Broadband ARPU ........................................................................................................................ 28
Broadband Technology mix and trends.................................................................................... 29
Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 30
Part 3: Mobile market .................................................................................................................. 31
Mobile Industry revenue growth ................................................................................................ 32
Total Mobile Revenue Market Share (inc. equipment revenues)............................................. 33
Service Revenue Market Share (exc. equipment revenues) .................................................... 34
Subscriber Market Shares .......................................................................................................... 35
Share of Subscriber Net Adds.................................................................................................... 36
3G Migration ............................................................................................................................... 37
Subscriber Acquisition Cost (SAC) and Margins ..................................................................... 38
Mobile ARPUs............................................................................................................................. 39
Wireless Broadband Subscribers .............................................................................................. 40
Notes on our Methodology ......................................................................................................... 41

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