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雷达卡
14 January 2009
Malaysia Strategy
Take profit; stay
Underweight
Take profit into the UMNO election rally
Economic indicators point towards a
much weaker operating environment for
corporate Malaysia. Stay Underweight.
The market is in denial of worsening economic conditions
Su-Yin Teoh
Strategist
(60) 3 2053 6770
su-yin.teoh@db.com
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Index and Volume Graph - 2 yr
MSCI MALAYSIA Performance 1M 3M 6M 12M
Abs. Change 27.8 -14.5 -67.7 -232.8
% Change 8.9 -4.1 -16.6 -40.6
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Volume (m)
DB 5 Malaysia Portfolio
Company B'berg Rating
Mkt Cap
(US$ m)
Price
(RM)
TP
(RM)
MISC - F MISF MK Buy 9,193.1 8.70 11.00
PLUS PLUS MK Buy 4,180.2 2.98 3.15
Genting GENT MK Buy 4,037.8 3.86 5.90
TM T MK Buy 3,192.9 3.02 3.70
B-Toto BST MK Buy 1,839.3 4.80 5.30
DB’s Malaysia Research Team
William Bratton
Research Analyst
(852) 2203 6186
william.bratton@db.com
Aun-Ling Chia, CFA
Research Analyst
(60) 3 2053 6768
aun-ling.chia@db.com
Irene Chin
Research Analyst
(60) 3 2053 6767
irene.chin@db.com
DB's Regional Strategy Team
Brad Jones
Research Analyst
(852) 2203 8170
brad.jones@db.com
Niklas Olausson, CFA
Research Analyst
(60) 3 2053 6760
niklas.olausson@db.com
Global Markets Research Company
Short-term rally may continue into the UMNO election period in March
The dead cat bounce rally may have a few more ‘legs’ in the run up to the UMNO
general election in late March. But this is unsustainable, in our opinion. We view
this rally as an excellent opportunity to take profits. Big-cap sectors like plantation,
select financials, property and infrastructure have run well ahead of fundamentals
in our view.
Leading indicators point towards a weaker-than-anticipated economy
Malaysia is perceived to be a defensive market. However, we would argue that
leading indicators point towards a worsening economic environment; we believe
much of this has yet to be fully priced in by the market. Loan applications and
approvals in November fell 33% and 44% respectively; the fixed income market is
bracing for a considerable amount of refinancing this year (DB estimate: RM50bn);
the government may ‘breach’ the 4.8% fiscal deficit; capital outflow continues;
and government revenue is under pressure with persistently weak oil prices.
New prime minister, new policies, priorities and ‘adjustments’
‘Big picture’ political newsflow should be positive in the near term, sparking
interest in the market. Early signs so far tell us that incoming Prime Minister Najib
Razak is decisive and is willing to push the reforms ahead. However, he inherits a
weakening economy, friction in the ruling party and a government revenue ‘pot’
that is easing. Political risk may have abated with a ‘quieter’ opposition party but
the ruling party continues to face an uphill task of winning back voters. This, we
suspect, will be the new prime minister’s biggest challenge.
This is not a market offering bargains yet; take profit into the March rally
Our top-down MSCI target of 262 (KLCI at 731) suggests 23% downside and
values the market at 10x PER 2009E, or a 15% discount to the region. The market
is currently trading at 12.7x and 11.4x PER 2009E and 2010E, a 15-18% premium
to the region. At 1.7x P/B, it is far from its trough valuation of around 1x P/B during
the Asian crisis. This is a market far from offering bargains. We continue to
advocate a defensive strategy. We believe the recent rally is unsustainable. We
like Telekom Malaysia, Genting, MISC, PLUS Expressway and BST. Take profits on
IOI Corp, KL Kepong, AMMB, SP Setia and Parkson Holdings. The key upside risks
for the market are: (a) a sustained rally in commodities benefiting the palm oil
names, (b) a larger-than-expected supplementary stimulus package; and (c)
unexpected positive market reforms.
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