发帖
雷达卡
I s Nuclear Build-Out Still on the Horizon?
Long-term demand for clean baseload power could lead to nuclear revival
We think nuclear revival continues to be an important topic given medium- to
long-term needs for more power capacity and increasing pressure to reduce global
carbon emissions. However, many challenges exist. This report addresses the
pivotal question of whether a nuclear revival is still on the horizon. We identify
nuclear pros and cons, global build plans by country, and a supply chain analysis.
Proprietary nuclear cost model; detailed supply chain analysis
We have aggregated numerous sources of global data, talked with industry experts
and utilities around the world, and reviewed the available data on current nuclear
manufacturing license-holders. We also present a proprietary cost model that
allows investors to assess the viability of nuclear based on various input factors.
Challenges significant, but long-term nuclear plans appear unchanged
UBS forecasts 100GW+ of new nuclear by 2020 (possibly a $300-400bn
opportunity) driven by govt support, desire for emissions reduction, fuel
diversification, and potentially lower cost. We have more confidence in a broad
revival in China, India, possibly Russia and the UK. The US has more uncertainty.
Key challenges included costs, safety/public sentiment, financing, political support,
uncertain carbon policies, spent fuel, and lack of experience.
Most exposed public companies include uranium, reactors, E&C providers
Uranium and E&C companies tend to have the highest potential exposure. Shaw
Group has some potentially positive near-term news flow, and over time Fluor,
McDermott, and URS could see material revenues. UBS also highlights Energy
Resources of Australia, Cameco, and Hyundai E&C (see table below).
Executive Summary 3
— Key Considerations ..............................................................................................3
— The Case for Nuclear ...........................................................................................6
— Global Nuclear Opportunity ..................................................................................6
— Forecasts by Country ...........................................................................................7
— Nuclear Value Chain ..........................................................................................10
What Is the Global Nuclear Opportunity? 12
— Why Is Nuclear Experiencing a Possible Revival?..............................................12
Global Capacity Plans 15
— Global Construction Plans..................................................................................18
— China (Stephen Oldfield) ....................................................................................20
— Taiwan ...............................................................................................................23
— Japan (Toshinori Ito) ..........................................................................................23
— Thailand (Athaporn Arayasantiparb)...................................................................24
— Korea (Josh Bae) ...............................................................................................24
— Indonesia (Sebastian Tobing).............................................................................25
— India (Pankaj Sharma/Suhas-Rema Harinarayanan) ..........................................25
— Pakistan.............................................................................................................26
— Russia (Igor Goncharov) ....................................................................................26
— Brazil (Gustavo Gattas)......................................................................................27
— Europe (Per Lekander).......................................................................................28
— US (Ron Barone)................................................................................................30
— Canada (Grant Hofer) ........................................................................................38
Nuclear New-Build Challenges 39
— High Construction Costs and Financing Concerns..............................................39
— Fuel Availability ..................................................................................................51
— Waste Storage ...................................................................................................52
— Labor Issues ......................................................................................................54
— Equipment Capacity ...........................................................................................56
— Public Sentiment ................................................................................................57
— Safety Concerns ................................................................................................59
— Other Concerns..................................................................................................60
Nuclear’s Cost Competitiveness 61
— Key Assumptions for Our Cost Estimates...........................................................63
— Nuclear Competitive, but There Are Barriers ......................................................66
— Central case: Nuclear Cost Competitive.............................................................66
— Sensitivities to Central Case...............................................................................67
— Analysis With US Fuel and Capital Cost Inputs ..................................................74
Nuclear Supply Chain 77
Uranium: Poised to Recover 98
— Demand Outlook ..............................................................................................101
— Supply Outlook.................................................................................................102
Guide to Sources 108
289561.pdf
(742.57 KB, 需要: 500 个论坛币)
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
京公网安备 11010802022788号
