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雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月韩国核能行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：41
【目录或简介】：
The outlook: Based on the projections by IAEA, about 310 units of nuclear
power generation plants are expected to be constructed globally by 2030.
We believe this translates into potential market size of W936 tn (W46.7 tn
p.a.) on a global basis. We believe emerging markets are expected to lead
the growth in new nuclear power plant construction in the long term.
■
Korea’s nuclear power supply chain: Expectation is now running high for
Korea’s nuclear energy sector. Korea is set to become a major nuclear
energy country (the world’s fifth largest), exporting technology to overseas
markets. Domestically, nuclear energy is a strategic priority and its capacity
is expected to increase 141% by 2030. Korea has diverse players in the
nuclear supply chain: KOPEC for design/engineering, Doosan Heavy for
main equipment, BHI (a small player) for BOP equipment plus top-tier E&C
companies for construction. In our view, however, expectation has run
ahead of reality leading to stretched valuations for main players.
■
Scenario analysis: long-term opportunities: Based on IAEA’s long-term
forecast, we believe Korean companies could garner W93 tn (or W4.7 tn
p.a.) until 2030, which is about 10% of global market share. Under a
pessimistic scenario, Korean companies’ market potential could reach
W21.6 tn (or W1.1 tn p.a.) by 2030.
■
Investment implication: long-term positives priced in: Despite long-term
potential opportunities for Korean companies, at the current price level, we
are unable to find attractive plays in the nuclear power sector. We initiate our
coverage on Korea Power Engineering Company (KOPEC) with an
UNDERPERFORM rating and a target price of W68,000 based on DCF. We
reiterate our NEUTRAL rating on KEPCO with fundamental issues remaining,
an UNDERPERFORM rating on Doosan Heavy and a NEUTRAL rating for
Hyundai E&C due to lack of valuation merit.
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