2009年12月东南亚农业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月东南亚农业研究报告
        【作者】：野村证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：72        
        【目录或简介】：


Contents
Nomura ASEAN Soft Commodity Team 4
We prefer midstream processors over upstream players 5
2009 has been the year for soft commodities and agri commodity players 5
Soft commodity prices expected to maintain price strength in 1H10 6
Palm oil — watch out for CPO prices after 1Q10F strength 6
Supply pressures on oilseeds and vegetable oils to ease in 2H10; grains to lead
price performance in 2010F 6
Earnings support should continue for regional agri players in 2010F 7
Corporate actions and inorganic activity will drive news flow 7
We like Wilmar for its franchise; we prefer Noble over Olam on valuations and
maintain our Bearish stance on plantations 9
Launch ASEAN soft commodity monthly — ASEAN Agri Bites 9
Soft commodity prices expected to remain strong in 1H10 11
Palm oil — watch out for CPO prices after 1Q10F strength 12
We expect CPO prices to strengthen in 1Q10F 12
Maintain our full-year 2010F CPO assumption of RM2,500/mT 12
Consumption sustained even through economic turbulence 12
Sell into strength of 1Q10 CPO price for Malaysian names; SGX listed-names
offer better value, in our view 14
Refining margins likely to remain stable 15
Soy: 1H10 to be driven by supply and 2H10 by price pressures 16
Soybean prices strengthened earlier this year due to drought and export tax
policies in Argentina 16
However, favourable supply outlook has led to a price correction 16
Chinese imports rose because of the government policy on pricing, but have
fallen recently 17
Oil/meal prices should remain firm in the near term due to supply shortages 18
Margins rose to historical highs, but seem to have corrected 18
We expect crush margins to correct sequentially but remain at healthy levels 19
Strong demand and weak production to support grain prices 20
Themes — weather patterns, policy decisions, USD and crude oil
support 21
Crude oil and US dollar outlook supportive 21
Weather patterns remain an uncertainty 22
Emerging economies to remain key demand drivers 23
Environmental concerns regarding palm oil to continue, compromise needed, in
our view 26
Business model transformations in the offing 27
Olam’s switch from an asset-light to asset-medium model 27
Potential returns from last few years’ investments and restructuring will drive
Noble’s growth for the next few years 27
Wilmar’s current businesses hitting a wall; rice and flour to lead growth from here 28
Sime Darby’s continued expansion into China 29
More focus on property at IOI Corp 29
Launching ASEAN commodity monthly — ASEAN Agri Bites 30
Valuation snapshot 31
The ups and downs 35
Vegetable oil and breakfast commodities have outperformed 35
Agri-related sectors have outperformed regional peers 36
Supply chain players have been the best performers 37
Strong earnings performance has led to upgrades by the street 38
Ears to the ground 40
Important events/news flow summary 40
Company news flow summary 41
Client marketing feedback 43
Key earnings announcements 43
Operational highlights – palm oil 44
Highlights of our published research 45
Commodity snippets 46
Palm oil 47
Prices improved on global vegetable oil tightness 47
Production recovered strongly in October and shored up CPO inventories 49
Exports still supported by China and India even with talks of high inventories in
importing countries 50
Introducing our short-term CPO price model 51
Soybean, soy meal and soy oil 53
Global oilseed production expected to rebound, which may put pressure on
prices 53
Meal and soy oil supply demand dynamics seem more stable 53
Strong soybean harvest in offering from Latin America 55
Argentina to lead soybean export growth; China imports likely to remain stable 55
Increase in crushing to support soymeal/oil consumption 56
China demand holding up; imports account for most of its oil requirements 57
Soybean price correction sharper than soymeal/oil price correction, underpinning
margin strength 59
Grains — rice, wheat and corn 60
Grain production to lag consumption growth 60
Poor monsoon in India bad for rice production 60
EU to lead wheat production shortfall, while India demand to pick up substantially 62
Drought and export policies a drag on Argentina’s corn exports; production set to
fall in the EU 63
Rubber and sugar 64
Thai rubber exports expected to remain strong 64
Sugar prices to surge on lower volumes 64
Valuation methodologies 66
Risks to price target 67

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