汇丰银行:欧洲保险行业研究报告2009年1月

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Cost cutting will become a key
insurance sector theme in 2009
􀀗 Our analysis of 49 European insurers’
expense bases identifies EUR13bn of
cost cutting potential, worth EUR26bn
􀀗 16 of the 24 companies we cover have
bull case cost cutting potential worth
>10% of current share price, we estimate
Our in-depth analysis of 49 European insurers’ expense
bases identifies EUR13bn of administrative cost cutting
potential. The successful execution of estimated cost cutting
potential could create between EUR26bn of value in our
base case and EUR100bn in our bull case. Within our
coverage universe it is interesting to note that total
communicated cost cutting plans equate to just 38% of the
base case or 12% of the bull case cost cutting potential.
We expect a plethora of cost cutting announcements this
year although this could be tempered by trade union
constraints and management appetite.
Our analysis highlights the least efficient insurers, operating
with administrative expense ratios in some cases 7x higher
than the most efficient. We believe that insurers should
operate with similar administration expense ratios and big
differences in lieu of company explanations imply cost
cutting potential.
Groups within our coverage universe with the biggest cost
cutting value creation potential under our bull case scenario
(as a % of share price) are AEGON (138%), Fondiaria
(106%), Prudential (54%), Standard Life (51%), AXA (42%)
Euler (41%), Allianz (41%), ZFS (37%) and Aviva (37%).
The largest insurers are still failing to extract meaningful
economies of scale benefits, and we cite material cost cutting
potential at mega-caps AXA and Allianz. Back-office
duplication also remains rife in the sector, although some
insurers are aggressively addressing this (i.e. Mapfre,
Aviva, Baloise).
This cost report is an excerpt from a broader European
insurance sector report which will follow shortly.

Cost cutting calculator
􀀗 Cost cutting will become a key theme across the European
insurance sector in 2009; some insurers have pre-empted our
thesis with announcements although we expect more to come.
􀀗 Significant cost cutting potential exists; least efficient insurers
have admin expense ratios 7x higher than the most efficient.
􀀗 We estimate admin cost cutting potential of EUR13bn across the
49 European insurers we have analysed, worth EUR26bn in our
base case or EUR100bn in our bull case.

Key conclusions
Cost cutting will be a key theme in the European
insurance sector this year.
Our analysis of 49 European insurers’ administrative
expense bases reveals a significant efficiency gap;
least efficient life and non-life insurers have
administration expense ratios 8x and 7x times higher
than most-efficient players respectively.
We believe that insurers should operate with
similar administration expense ratios and big
differences, in the absence of company-specific
explanations, imply cost cutting potential. We
purposefully exclude acquisition costs from our
analysis, as they are unduly affected by
geographic presence and business mix.
The most efficient life insurer, CNP, and the least
efficient, Baloise, have admin expense ratios of
0.16% and 1.36% of average net life technical
reserves respectively.

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