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Retail Guidebook Vol.11
December Same-Store Sales Down 4.8%
Retail
Chiaki HirotaAC
(81-3) 6736-8660
chiaki.x.hirota@jpmorgan.com
Kumio Tomonaga
(81-3) 6736 8643
kumio.z.tomonaga@jpmorgan.com
JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.
See page 158 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
TOPIX Retail Index and Relative Value
vs. TOPIX
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
70
100
130
160
TOPIX Retail Trade Index(LHS)
Relative Value vs. TOPIX(RHS)
Source: Bloomberg
• Sales rose for just two of 22 subsectors: Same-store sales fell 4.8% YoY in
December on a simple-average basis. This followed a confirmed 0.6% drop in
November and marked the ninth consecutive month of YoY declines. Sales fell
5.3% for pure retailers (-1.1% in November), down for the fifth straight month
YoY, and 3.4% for restaurants (+1.0%), retreating again after the first increase
in 14 months in November. Although an unfavorable calendar factor for
companies closing their books at month's end did not help, we attribute weak
sales mainly to worsening consumer sentiment, which has been affected by
media reports on worsening employment conditions. Same-store average
spending per customer fell 0.9% YoY, the first decline of over 0.5% YoY since
October 2005.
• YoY growth by subsector: Growth was strongest at convenience stores
(+4.8%), takeout food shops (0.0%), and supermarkets (-0.1%), and weakest at
eyewear stores (-14.5%), shoe/bag/accessory stores (-12.4%), and apparel stores
(-11.9%). In terms of YoY improvement, the top three were convenience stores
(+6.5ppt), discount stores/100 yen shops (+2.0ppt), and home centers (-0.1ppt),
and the bottom three eyewear stores (-13.2ppt), consumer electronics stores
(-11.7ppt), and revolving sushi restaurants (-9.4ppt). Although the YoY growth
for food-related subsectors was relatively firm, a plunge in demand for items
considered unnecessary/not urgent resulted in significant disparities among the
subsectors.
• Top three in 3M – 12M moving-average differential: Absolute: Zict (9901),
Fast Retailing (9983), Yoshinoya Holdings (9861). MoM: Megane Top (7541),
Belluna (9997), Yoshinoya Holdings (9861).
• Pickups of the month: Restaurant sector, Ohsho Food Service (9936), Hiday
Hidaka (7611), and Daisyo (9979).
• Our report includes 269 companies (207 pure retail, 62 restaurants) and
December sales figures for 243 companies (184 pure retail, 59 restaurants) that
could be compiled as of January 22.
• Calendar factors: No impact for companies closing their books on the 15th
with one less Saturday and one more Sunday; one fewer Saturday and Sunday
for companies closing at month's end; one fewer Saturday for companies closing
on the 20th.

Table of Contents
Subsector Sales Overview (December)..................................6
Calendar and Weather Factors................................................7
Retail Market Cap and Valuation.............................................9
Same-Store Customer Traffic and Average Spending ..........9
Pickup of the Month ...............................................................12
December Same-Store Sales Growth by Subsector............17
YoY Sales Growth, 3M MA by Subsector .............................18
December Same-Store Sales Growth by Company.............21
Sales Data of Retail Associations.........................................32
Monthly Sales Data for Individual Companies.....................38
Department Store (YoY Increase/Decrease).........................38
Convenience Stores (YoY Increase/Decrease) ....................51
GMS (YoY Increase/Decrease) ..............................................55
Supermarkets (YoY Increase/Decrease)...............................62
Apparel Stores (YoY Increase/Decrease) .............................77
Consumer Electronics Retailers (YoY Increase/Decrease).89
Home Centers (YoY Increase/Decrease) ..............................92
Drugstores (YoY Increase/Decrease)....................................97
Home Furnishing Stores (YoY Increase/Decrease) ...........108
Eyewear Stores (YoY Increase/Decrease) ..........................111
Discount Stores/100 Yen Shops (YoY Increase/Decrease)
...............................................................................................113
Shoe/Bag/Accessory Stores (YoY Increase/Decrease) .....115
Mail-order Retailers (YoY Increase/Decrease) ...................118
Second-hand Shops (YoY Increase/Decrease) ..................120
Sports Shop (YoY Increase/Decrease) ...............................122
Books, CDs, DVDs Sales/Rentals (YoY Increase/Decrease)
...............................................................................................124
Others (YoY Increase/Decrease) .........................................127
Fast-food Restaurants (YoY Increase/Decrease)...............132
Izakaya (Japanese Pubs) (YoY Increase/Decrease)...........141
Family Restaurants (YoY Increase/Decrease)....................148
Revolving Sushi Restaurants (YoY Increase/Decrease) ...152
Take-Out Food Shops (YoY Increase/Decrease)................154

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