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Retail Guidebook Vol.12
January Same-Store Sales Down 3.6%
Retail
Chiaki HirotaAC
(81-3) 6736-8660
chiaki.x.hirota@jpmorgan.com
Kumio Tomonaga
(81-3) 6736 8643
kumio.z.tomonaga@jpmorgan.com
JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.
See page 158 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
TOPIX Retail Index and Relative Value
vs. TOPIX
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
70
100
130
160
TOPIX Retail Trade Index(LHS)
Relative Value vs. TOPIX(RHS)
Source: Bloomberg
?Sales rose for just 3 of 22 subsectors: Same-store sales fell 3.6% YoY in
January on a simple-average basis, on the heels of a confirmed 4.8% drop in
December and marking the 10th consecutive month of YoY declines. Sales fell
3.9% for pure retailers (-5.2% in December), down for the sixth straight month
YoY, and fell 2.9% for restaurants (-3.4%), falling for the second straight
month. Although the calendar factor resulted in one more holiday for companies
closing their books at month's end, the benefit was limited for many companies
as the calendar factor for the New Year sales was unfavorable compared with
January 2008. Same-store average spending per customer fell 0.6% YoY, down
for the second straight month.
?YoY growth by subsector: Growth was strongest at convenience stores
(+5.9%), supermarkets (+0.5%), and drugstores (+0.1%), and weakest at
department stores (-9.2%), apparel stores (-9.0%), and revolving sushi
restaurants (-8.6%). In terms of YoY improvement, the top three subsectors
were convenience stores (+7.8ppt), discount stores/100 yen shops (+2.8ppt), and
Japanese style dining pubs (+1.4ppt), and the bottom three were second-hand
shops (-10.2ppt), consumer electronics stores (-8.2ppt), and revolving sushi
restaurants (-7.7ppt). Although YoY growth for food-related subsectors was
relatively firm, sales of items considered unnecessary or not urgent continued to
fall rapidly. Sales at drugstores polarized by geographic region, with drugstores
in the Kanto region northward benefiting from cold/flu outbreaks.
?Top three in 3M ?12M moving-average differential: Absolute: Mos Food
Services (8153), Fast Retailing (9983), Kentucky Fried Chicken Japan (9873).
MoM: Cecile (9937), Verite (9904), Mos Food Services (8153).
?Companies showing movements in monthly sales: Mos Food Services (8153),
Kentucky Fried Chicken Japan (9873), Yamaya (9994), and drugstores.
?Our report includes 267 companies (203 pure retail, 64 restaurants) and January
sales figures for 243 companies (184 pure retail, 59 restaurants) that could be
compiled as of February 20.
?Calendar factors: One more Saturday for companies closing books at month's
end, one fewer Saturday for companies closing on the 20th, and one fewer
Sunday for companies closing on the 15th.
Table of Contents
Subsector Sales Overview (January) ...............................................6
Calendar and Weather Factors .........................................................7
Retail Market Cap and Valuation ....................................................10
Same-Store Customer Traffic and Average Spending .................10
Companies Showing Volatility in Monthly Sales ..........................13
January Same-Store Sales Growth by Subsector.........................20
YoY Sales Growth, 3M MA by Subsector.......................................21
January Same-Store Sales Growth by Company..........................24
Sales Data of Retail Associations ..................................................35
Monthly Sales Data for Individual Companies ..............................41
Department Store (YoY Increase/Decrease) ..................................41
Convenience Stores (YoY Increase/Decrease)..............................54
GMS (YoY Increase/Decrease)........................................................58
Supermarkets (YoY Increase/Decrease) ........................................65
Apparel Stores (YoY Increase/Decrease).......................................80
Consumer Electronics Retailers (YoY Increase/Decrease)..........92
Home Centers (YoY Increase/Decrease)........................................95
Drugstores (YoY Increase/Decrease)...........................................100
Home Furnishing Stores (YoY Increase/Decrease) ....................110
Eyewear Stores (YoY Increase/Decrease) ...................................113
Discount Stores/100 Yen Shops (YoY Increase/Decrease) ........115
Shoe/Bag/Accessory Stores (YoY Increase/Decrease) ..............117
Mail-order Retailers (YoY Increase/Decrease).............................120
Second-hand Shops (YoY Increase/Decrease) ...........................122
Sports Shop (YoY Increase/Decrease).........................................124
Books, CDs, DVDs Sales/Rentals (YoY Increase/Decrease) ......126
Others (YoY Increase/Decrease)...................................................129
Fast-food Restaurants (YoY Increase/Decrease) ........................134
Izakaya (Japanese Pubs) (YoY Increase/Decrease)....................144
Family Restaurants (YoY Increase/Decrease) .............................150
Revolving Sushi Restaurants (YoY Increase/Decrease) ............154
Take-Out Food Shops (YoY Increase/Decrease).........................156
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