发帖
雷达卡
Policy, not profit, is driving
management decisions as the
government pushes operators to
expand capex and subscribers
We focus on sensitivity of earnings to
handset subsidies; smaller operators’
earnings are more at risk
Downgrade China Telecom to UW(V).
China Mobile still our preferred pick, but
slowing growth offers limited upside
2009 is likely to be a difficult year for the Chinese telecom
operators as intensifying competition hurts margins. We
prefer China Mobile as its balance sheet strength makes it
the most defensive stock.
China Mobile (maintain Neutral (V), TP: HKD72)
We raise 09e and 10e EPS by 1.1% and 0.3% on higher
subscriber estimates. We are 8% and 12% below
consensus for 2009 and 2010 after the revision. Our
target price rises 6%; potential return 6.1%.
China Telecom (downgrade to UW(V), TP: HKD2.5)
We cut 09e and 10e earnings by 23.3% and 24.9% on
higher amortization expense and handset subsidy. We
are now 15% and 19.2% below consensus for 2009 and
2010. Our target price comes down 17% to HKD2.5;
potential return -10.9%.
China Unicom (maintain UW(V), TP: HKD6.4)
We cut 09e and 10e earnings by 13.6% and 3% on
decline in GSM ARPU and higher handset subsidy. Our
09e and 10e EPS are now 16.9% and 18.5% below
consensus. Our target price comes down 28%; potential
return -9.5%.
Telecoms
China
China Telcos
Policy, not profit
3 February 2009
Tucker Grinnan*
Analyst
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
+852 2822 4686 tuckergrinnan@hsbc.com.hk
Walden Shing*
Analyst
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
+852 2996 6751 waldenshing@hsbc.com.hk
View HSBC Global Research at: http://www.research.hsbc.com
*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/qualified pursuant to NYSE and/or NASD
regulations
Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking
Corporation Limited
Disclaimer & Disclosures
This report must be read with the
disclosures and the analyst certifications
in the Disclosure appendix, and with the
Disclaimer, which forms part of it
Valuation summary
(HKD) Price __ Rating ___ Target Price __ PE ___
Stock Ticker 30-Jan Old New Old New 2008 2009
China Mobile 941 HK 70.5 N (V) N (V) 68 72 11.1 10.9
China Telecom 728 HK 2.88 N (V) UW (V) 3.0 2.5 10.0 13.0
China Unicom 762 HK 7.32 UW (V) UW (V) 8.9 6.4 8.6 12.7
Source: HSBC
目录
Post 3G era 3
3G rollout schedule 3
How big is 3G demand? 3
3G subscriber assumption 4
Sensitivity analysis on 3G subscriber assumption 4
Handset subsidy – the key to profitability 6
3G license likely to spur another round of capex 8
3G spectrum 9
Bundling helps lower fixed-line subscriber loss 9
China Mobile 12
Solid fundamentals, potential upside of dividend 12
Capex likely to be revised up to support
domestic economy 12
Slowing growth may result in de-rating 13
Maintain Neutral (V), target price up 6% to HKD72 14
Risks to our view 14
Financials & valuation: 16
China Telecom 17
First-mover advantage in launching 3G services 17
CDMA unprofitable in 2009-10 due to handset subsidy 17
Broadband competition 17
Bundling helps to lower fixed line subscriber loss 18
Downgrade to UW (V): Too early to buy 18
Risks to our view 18
Financials & valuation: 21
China Unicom 22
More vulnerable to downside surprise 22
More difficulties ahead 22
Maintain Underweight (V), cut target price to HKD6.4 22
Risks to our view 23
Financials & valuation: 26
Disclosure appendix 27
Disclaimer 31
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