摩根斯坦利:中国制药行业研究报告免费2009年2月

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February 6, 2009
China Pharmaceuticals
Time to Look at the
Neglected China Drug Sector
Investible industry leaders emerging… We are
initiating coverage of the China pharmaceuticals
industry with an In-Line view, as we now see ample
investment opportunities in the China drug sector. A
major hindrance to investing in the sector had been the
lack of quality companies with large enough market cap,
due to the fragmented nature of the industry. This is
changing fast with the emergence of such marquee
companies as Hengrui, a top oncology player, and
Simcere, a top integrated drug marketing powerhouse.
There are ~15 A-share drug companies with market cap
above US$1bn, and a number of quality overseas-listed
drug companies such as the United Laboratories (TUL).
…as industry growth surges. Pharmaceuticals, the
largest subsector within China Healthcare, should
continue to be bolstered by a large aging population,
rising disposable income, and increasing government
spending.
Why In-Line view: While the overall industry growth
has been impressive, the long-anticipated industry
consolidation has yet to materialize. Most industry
players are still low-tech manufacturers making very thin
profit margins due to large sales & marketing outlays
and aggressive price competition.
We thus think the time is right to pick winners: We
expect the upcoming healthcare reform to increase
demand for drugs and bring many new opportunities to
reputable generic drug makers. We believe companies
with the following attributes will benefit from the new
dynamics: 1) proprietary products and/or first-to-market
generic drugs to ensure market exclusivity, 2) strong
rural sales networks and a focus on specific disease
areas (e.g., oncology), and 3) a low cost structure and
established brand name. Our top pick is TUL (3933.HK,
OW), followed by Jiangsu Hengrui (600276.SS, EW)
and Simcere Pharmaceuticals (SCR.N, EW).
Risks: Government slows down spending on healthcare
and/or imposes direct price control on drugs.

Table of Contents
Investment Case............................................................................................................................................................. 3
Investment Positives...................................................................................................................................................... 6
Investment Concerns..................................................................................................................................................... 9
Valuation ....................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Performance Table....................................................................................................................................................... 13
China Pharmaceuticals – Relative Stock Price Performance vs. Index .................................................................. 14
Pharmaceutical Basics ................................................................................................................................................ 16
Market Overview........................................................................................................................................................... 17
Expanding Insurance Coverage Is Key to Industry Growth ..................................................................................... 19
Drug Price Controls ..................................................................................................................................................... 22
Drug Registration Process.......................................................................................................................................... 24
Legal Protection for Drugs.......................................................................................................................................... 26
Distribution of Pharmaceuticals ................................................................................................................................. 27
New Healthcare Reform Plan ...................................................................................................................................... 29
Top 20 China Pharmaceutical Companies ................................................................................................................. 32
Glossary ........................................................................................................................................................................ 33
Appendix: China Healthcare Value Chain Overview ................................................................................................. 39
Distributor Overview.................................................................................................................................................... 40
Services Overview........................................................................................................................................................ 41
Retail Overview............................................................................................................................................................. 43
Consumer Overview..................................................................................................................................................... 44
Regulation..................................................................................................................................................................... 45

291185.pdf (706.1 KB)

2009-2-6 16:57:00 上传

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