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• We expect persistent near term weakness, but a mild recovery in H2 2009
• Prices will struggle near term, but the downside is not unlimited – while demand is weak and
might get weaker, supply cuts have been signifi cant
• Base metals: In the overview, we focus on base metals where the extent of supply cuts and
the relationship between prices and costs determine the prospects for recovery in H2
• Crude oil: Energy prices have underperformed the rest of the commodity complex – OPEC
compliance is key to a recovery
• Gold: We retain our bullish outlook for gold by H2 on the back of USD weakness and strong
investor support
• Agriculture: Strong m/m performance highlights improved investor sentiment and supply
concerns
Darkness before the dawn
Monthly Analysis of Commodity Trends - 14 January 2009
Contents
Overview pp. 3-5
Base metals: Identifying the winners and losers for 2009
Forecast table p. 6
SCB annual forecasts in USD, EUR, JPY, CNY p. 7
Commodity index performance p. 8
Crude oil pp. 9-11
Refi ned oil products pp.12-14
Thermal coal p. 15
Precious metals pp.16-17
Base metals pp.18-21
Steel p. 22
Freight rates p. 23
Softs and Fibres pp. 24-25
Grains and oilseeds pp. 26-27
Edible oils p. 28
Agriculture: Supply-demand balances pp. 29-30
Fund watch pp. 31-32
Contacts p. 33
Disclosures appendix pp. 34-35
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