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Global Aerospace & Defence
ANNUAL
2009 Outlook & Directory: Uncertain times
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Uncertain times: Credit Suisse’s strategists’ macro view is that we are
in the biggest economic and financial crisis since 1945 and that it will
take 2–3 years for GDP growth to revert to trend. The commercial jet
aircraft industry did not exist at that time and the structure of the
defence industry was materially different. We set out our view on how
the sub-sectors may perform in such difficult and uncertain times.
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Directory: We include 4-page summaries of 29 aerospace & defence
companies, including business descriptions, financials and valuations.
Defence: We see rising defence investment and falling operational spend. We
expect continuing but lower defence investment spending growth and think investor
worries about the risk of defence spending cuts are overdone given strategic threats
and the hi-tech jobs the defence industry creates. The fiscal 2009 US base-line
defence budget was $515.4bn and we see potential for growth in fiscal 2010 and
2011, but we expect budget supplementals to decline.
Commercial aerospace: We expect global air traffic to fall 5% in 2009E and
commercial aircraft production to fall for 3–5 years. Commercial aircraft orders
peaked in 2007 at 2,753 (book:bill 3.1x) and fell to around 1,438 (book:bill 1.7x) in
2008. We expect orders to fall to 600–800 (book:bill 0.64x~0.85x) in 2009E and
further in 2010E, driving a downturn in aircraft production from 941 aircraft in 2009E
to 725 in 2012E. A 1990s-type cycle would imply production would not bottom until
2013E and that it would trough at 470 aircraft. We expect the aircraft manufacturers
(and engine suppliers) to take on $10bn–25bn of customer financing over the next
three years. On a more positive note, we see potential for commercial aftermarket
demand to bottom in 2009 and to grow in 2010 and we think suppliers with younger
fleets could even see growth in 2009. We see significant value emerging in some
of the commercial aftermarket stocks and favour this exposure over original
equipment companies.
Business jets: Business jet utilisation fell more quickly than that of
commercial aircraft in 2008 and the faltering economy looks likely to present even
bigger challenges in the year ahead. US corporate profitability (supplemented
slightly by emerging market growth) has been the key driver of demand historically.
Regional jets: The freezing of credit markets could temporarily invalidate the
natural counter-cyclicality of regional jets versus larger jets that usually occurs
when airlines downsize their fleets to adjust seat availability to weaker demand. New
market entrants (Superjet100, ARJ21 and MRJ) remain a focus.
Valuation: The global sector is trading on 2009E EV/sales of 0.81x, compared to
the ten-year range of 1.14x and the previous trough of 1.0x. On P/E multiples the
European sector is trading on 9.3 and the US is on 9.1 for 2009E, and on EV/EBITA
multiples, Europe is on 8.6 and the US is on 6.7.
Key ideas: For potential upside to defence investment growth expectations, we
favour Finmeccanica, BAE Systems, L3 Communications and Raytheon. Within
commercial aerospace, we favour aftermarket exposure and our key ideas are
Rolls-Royce, Goodrich and Meggitt—we see strong value emerging. We are
negative on commercial original equipment exposure, namely EADS and Boeing.
Table of contents
Key conclusions 5
Key European ideas: Bar-bell approach 6
Key US ideas: Favour defence over commercial 7
Key catalysts 8
Summary outlook and key themes 10
Defence 19
Sector performance 23
Sector valuation summary 24
Commercial aerospace outlook 30
Commercial aerospace: Passenger air travel demand 30
Commercial aircraft demand 41
Airline profitability 41
Aircraft fleet development 54
Replacement demand/aircraft retirements 59
Aircraft in storage 65
Freighter demand 70
Aircraft financing markets 77
How an aircraft financing deal works 77
Changing commercial terms of trade 77
Lease rates 78
Providers of finance 79
Leasing companies—recent commentary 84
Export credit agency (ECA) support 85
Will the OEMS step in? 89
Airbus and Boeing market forecasts 91
Commercial aircraft market shares 99
Airline fleets 103
Commercial aircraft market outlook 107
Excess capacity model 107
Previous cycles peak to trough 110
Longer-term cycles 111
Aircraft production and order intakes 112
Order backlogs 115
Boeing and Airbus product ranges/launches 117
Key recent product launches 118
Commercial aviation support services 123
Commercial aero-engine markets 126
Competing engine offerings 126
Commercial aero-engine market shares 128
Market share by market segment 130
CFM partnership agreements + CFM56 development 138
Next generation narrow-body (NGNB) engines 139
Installed base and aftermarket considerations 150
Aero-engine business model 152
Spare parts competition 155
Regional Jet Markets 158
Global defence spending 161
The global arms market 167
Procurement environment 168
US defence spending 171
The history of US defence spending 171
Previous economic crises 172
US defence budget outlook 175
GEIA ten-year US defence spending outlook 177
European defence spending 201
NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) 206
UK defence spending 208
Major UK defence programmes 213
Army 213
Air Force 218
Navy 219
French defence spending 221
Russian defence spending 224
Defence in emerging markets 227
Asia-Pacific: Increase in spending purely defensive 227
Middle East: Instability driving military expenditure 228
Defence companies’ export prospects 231
Asia-Pacific: Growing spend taking advantage of economic growth 240
Longer-term Asia-Pacific defence spending trends 240
Asia-Pacific defence spending split 241
Defence spending outlook: China 243
Defence spending outlook: Taiwan 247
Defence spending outlook: India 250
Defence spending outlook—Japan 254
Defence spending outlook—South Korea 257
Other Asia-Pacific key players—spending and trends 261
Drivers of Asia-Pacific defence spending 266
Middle East & North Africa: Conflict driving military expenditure 269
Longer-term defence spending trends 269
Middle East defence spending split 271
Saudi Arabia: Defence spending outlook 273
Israel: Defence spending outlook 276
UAE: Defence spending outlook 278
Iraq: Defence spending outlook 280
Libya: Defence spending outlook 283
Egypt: Defence spending outlook 284
Drivers of future Middle East defence spending 285
Military aircraft 286
Market size and spending history and forecasts 286
Key players 288
Products 290
Strategic moves 304
Defence electronics 307
Market size and spending patterns 307
Key product areas 312
Missiles 315
Key players 317
Missile products 322
Helicopter markets 325
Market size and trends 325
Key players’ products 328
Strategic moves 332
Products 333
Space 335
Market size 335
Spending history and forecasts 335
Key players 338
Products 343
Company summaries 345
Alliant Techsystems (ATK, Outperform, TP $104) 346
B/E Aerospace (BEAV, Outperform, TP $17) 350
BAE Systems (BAES.L, Outperform, TP 450p) 354
Boeing (BA, Neutral, TP $47) 358
Chemring (CHG.L, Outperform, TP 2335p) 362
Cobham (COB.L, Neutral, TP 210p) 366
DynCorp International (DCP, Neutral, TP $18) 370
EADS (EAD.PA, Underperform, TP
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