星展银行：中国互联网行业研究报告2009年2月

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Pick the cycle-proof counters
We prefer Tencent and Kingsoft for its immune strong
growth and attractive valuation. We remain cautious on
Alibaba and Kingdee for its exposure to the struggling
SME sector in China.
Intact growth momentum in young consumer
market. Due to low penetration, low paying ratio and
high affordability, demand for Internet services by
young consumers should sustain strong growth despite
the economic slowdown in China. Especially, we
believe the IM, MVAS and online game market in China
would sustain 25%-35% CAGR for FY08-10, which
would be underpinned by 1) strong growth momentum
in the number of paying users, and 2) ARPU expansion
through monetization.
Strong inelastic demand in government market.
Demand for IT services in the government and SOEs
market should sustain double-digit growth going
forward, as the major e-Government and
informationization projects are implemented on
schedule. Moreover, China’s earmarked RMB4trn to
bolster economy growth should create great extra
demand for IT services. Strong inelastic demand in these
markets should be least impacted by the economic
slowdown.
Exposure to SMEs market remains risky. The
worsening foreign and domestic business environment
since 4Q08 in China have placed growing threat to the
viability of many SMEs. With shrinking sales and
production, SMEs would cut back on IT spending (such
as online advertising and purchase of software).
According to a Forrester study, global purchases of IT
goods and services would decline by 3% this year. In
this regard, SME-oriented IT enterprises should be liable
to the deteriorating macro environments.
Prefer consumer-oriented counters. Business model,
competition, profitability and growth outlook are key
valuation determinants. By contrast, we believe Tencent
deserves an above-average valuation among major
global Internet companies (15x – 30x). We think Alibaba
and Kingdee should continue to be overshadowed by
the dim SME sector outlook in China.
NEUTRAL
HSI: 13,064
ANALYST
Steven Liu, CFA (852) 2971 1780
steven_liu@hk.dbsvickers.com
Source: DBS Vickers
Valuation
Company Price Mkt Cap
FY09F
PE
Recom
Target
Price
HK$ HK$m x HK$
Tencent (700 HK) 45.8 82,236 20.6 Buy 62.0
Alibaba (1688 HK) 6.07 30,650 23.3 Fully
Valued
4.9
Kingsoft (3888 HK) 2.75 2,952 7.0 Buy 3.5
Kingdee (268 HK) 0.71 1,365 6.6 Hold 0.98
Chinasoft (354 HK) 0.53 534 4.8 Buy 1.2

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