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【篇幅】PDF38页
【日期】20160120
【摘要】
ECB monetary policy suffers from structural economic divergences. The
Euro’s irreversibility was questioned at the peak of the EMU debt crisis,
but the rescue packages and especially the swift actions of the ECB held
EMU together. The effectiveness of ECB monetary policy, however, suffers
from the structural economic divergences across member countries and
slow correction of these structural gaps (fig. 2-4).
Labour mobility is a crucial criterion according to Optimum Currency Area
theory. Given the importance of the labour market and the extremely
strong divergence (fig. 5-9), we analyse if labour mobility has served as an
adjustment channel for EMU.
EMU labour mobility relatively low vs. the US, but increased since the
crisis. Our analysis shows that geographical mobility remains relatively low
in EMU vs. the US. The good news is, however, that EMU mobility was far
higher in the post-crisis period and increased 15% since the start of the
crisis (fig. 18). The shift in migration flows were dominated by higher
inflows to Germany. Regressions confirm that the welfare gap and
particularly the unemployment gap are the major drivers of migration.
Enhancing labour mobility is one of the EU Commission’s key new
initiatives for 2016. The planned actions will probably be only half-hearted.
The refugee crisis is currently higher on the political agenda.
Refugees and non-EMU labour migration put higher EMU mobility at risk.
The increased competition caused by the jump of migration from non EMU
countries will probably put the increased EMU labour mobility at risk,
which was dominated by the shift of flows in the direction of Germany as
EMU’s stability anchor since the start of the crisis.
20160120-Deutsche_Bank-Global_Economic_PerspectivesHigher_EMU_labour_mobility_at_risk.pdf
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