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Market Update
4 February 2009
Turkey Idealog - Feb 09
Much ado about
nothing
We do not see the potential IMF deal as a
catalyst for a breakout conviction for the
ISE but more as an excuse for short-term
profit taking before 4Q08 earnings
announcements give investors a view on
the scope of the downturn in Turkish
economy.
Serhan Gok
Research Analyst
(90) 212 292 2854
serhan.gok@db.com
Mete Ozbek
Research Analyst
(90) 212 3190325
mete.ozbek@db.com
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Idealog Index vs. ISE 100
40
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Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
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Jan-09
Idealog Index ISE 100 (rebased)
Market synopsis
@30 January 2009 Closing m-o-m
ISE 100 (TRY) 25,934 -3.5% -930 pts
ISE 100 ($) 1.59 -10.1% 0.18 pts
MSCI EM ($) 174 -12.0% -23.8 pts
ISE Ave. Vol. ($m) 740 23.0%
ISE 100 monthly Hi/Lo 28,733 24,035
ISE 30 best performers
m-o-m $ perf Ave Vol
TTKOM 14% $12.0m
ISGYO 9% $1.9m
TAVHL 4% $4.7m
ISE 30 worst performers
m-o-m $ perf Ave Vol
TSKB -24% $0.6m
PETKM -23% $2.8m
YKBNK -21% $21.6m
Recent rating/target price revisions
Stock (PT) Current Prev. TP chg
TOASO.IS (TRY2.38) BUY BUY -26%
THYAO.IS (TRY9.90) BUY BUY +10%
FROTO.IS (TRY7.15) BUY BUY -29%
AKGRT.IS (TRY4.74) BUY BUY -41%
Global Markets Research Company
IMF deal is not a bailout for Turkey
It’s different this time. Unlike the situation in 2001, additional IMF funding would
neither be a substantial addition to the CBT's international reserves nor a large
enough endorsement to cover the 2009 fiscal gap risk, which is key to lowering
the Treasury’s rollover ratio. News reports indicate the IMF agreed to lower the
primary surplus target substantially, which refutes the current consensus view that
a combination of monetary easing (lower rates) and fiscal tightening would lead to
higher private sector lending -as the tightening part would simply not occur.
NPL cycle trend is the real macro catalyst for Turkish equities
Since the CBT's rate cuts have rendered the maintenance of banks' liquid
positions increasingly expensive, banks are much more motivated to lend.
However, the major impediment remains the high increase in NPLs (2% on a
weekly basis as of 23-Jan data). Banks simply need to see through the NPL cycle
before the lending appetite can kick-in, a key catalyst for Turkish equities since
local demand and growth remain dependent on consumer and SME financing
conditions -with corporate borrowing mainly concentrated on working capital
financing and household savings levels being very low-the credit channel remains
the blood of the economy. We are not long-term bears for Turkish equities.
However, we do not see the IMF deal as a catalyst for a breakout conviction
either. The deal, if it happens, would be the only major, Turkey specific, positive
newsflow in 1H09, therefore it seems more reasonable to think of it as an excuse
for short-term profit taking before 4Q08 earnings announcements give investors a
view on the scope of the downturn the Turkish economy has been experiencing.
Top Picks outperformed ISE-100 index by 6.8% in January
In this month’s portfolio, we are making some changes to reflect changed risk and
reward in select stocks. We are replacing Turk Telekom with Turkcell as we
believe that both telco companies should trade with similar valuations. Turkcell
lagged Turk Telekom by 17% in January and we believe that Turkcell’s
performance could be stronger than Turk Telekom. Aksigorta remains one of our
Top Picks as the stock's discount to its CNAV remains high with its relative price
at the lower range of a 2-standard-deviation band of its major underlier, Akbank.
After having outperformed the Big-4 in the past month, Akbank is now the most
expensive bank in our coverage universe and has the least potential upside. As
such, we replace Yapi Kredi with Akbank as a likely underperformer. Garanti
remains as the best value among the Big-4. We keep Turkish Airlines in the
portfolio based on its attractive valuation and potential fast margin response to
declining oil prices. Finally, Erdemir remains as a potential underperformer due to
deterioration in profitability with the meltdown in steel price & demand outlook.
See Pages 6-8 for details of our key equity calls and Top Picks.
Table of Contents
Much ado about nothing .................................................................. 3
IMF deal is not a bailout for Turkey...........................................................................................3
In the absence of a global re-rating in EM equities, short-term upside in ISE-100 could be
capped at around 29,000 levels as prevailing macro challenges prevent a stronger conviction
on our 39,000 12-month bottom up target ...............................................................................4
Equity overview................................................................................. 6
Major developments in the past month....................................................................................6
Our key calls in the past month ................................................................................................7
Monthly agenda................................................................................. 9
Top picks .......................................................................................... 12
Top Picks: Turkcell in, Turk Telekom out; Akbank replaces Yapi Kredi in likely underperformers
...............................................................................................................................................12
Top picks outperformed the ISE-100 by 6.8% in January.......................................................12
Idealog portfolio methodology and history .............................................................................12
Top Picks .......................................................................................... 14
Market Data ..................................................................................... 25
Datascan........................................................................................... 28
Key Market Aggregates................................................................... 30
Foreign Participation in ISE ............................................................ 31
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