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The Latam Equities Flagship
Infrastructure: solid or
shaky foundations?
Fresh trade ideas:
We recommend ALL based on: 1) 7.0x
2009 EBITDA, 2) 25% 2008-10 EBITDA
CAGR and 3) limited volume risk. We
recommend PAC based on: 1) a
resumption of abandoned routes service,
2) limited upside to crude oil prices in
2009 and 3) 8.5% dividend yield.
Infrastructure winners: Gerdau, Tenaris, ICA, CICSA and Cemex.
Guilherme Paiva, CFA
Strategist
(1) 212 250 2873
guilherme.paiva@db.com
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at http://gm.db.com or by calling 1-877-
208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Global Markets Research Company
The commodity trade has surprisingly come back with a vengeance
We argued in January investors should wait for a better entry point to position
themselves for the end of the bear market (hopefully in 2Q09). Since then, Latin
American equities are up only a meager 3.3%; still, we don’t feel comforted…
why? Latin equities have truly been a tale of two markets: Brazil – boosted by a
return of the commodity trade – is up 6% while Mexico is down 11% over the
past month. We expected Brazil to fare better than Mexico but the commodity
trade has surprisingly come back with a vengeance.
Waiting to rotate for a little bit longer… impatiently
We like the commodity companies from a cycle point of view – i.e. we are close
to the worst of the global recession – however the stocks have move up 15-20%
year-to-date. (Mining, forestry, energy and steel are the top 4 performing sectors
so far in 2009.) Their performance is even more remarkable in light of the very
weak economic data releases that we have seen in developed markets during the
period. In other words, the stocks have proven resilient to bad news – a usually
bullish sign. Nevertheless, we will wait a little bit longer for a better entry point.
Fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending: new and bigger plans
Our analysis of the new Brazilian, Mexican and Chilean infrastructure investment
plans indicates the public sector should be the main driver (75-90%) behind the
increase in infrastructure spending. Unfortunately, we have serious doubts about
the ability of the Brazilian and Mexican federal governments to significantly boost
spending. Therefore, state-owned companies like Petrobras, Eletrobras and
Pemex will need to bear a significant capex burden over the next few years.
Energy spending remains top priority in Brazil and Mexico
The energy sector should be top priority because of its strategic vital role – the
development of the pre-salt region in Brazil and a stabilization of the structural
production decline in Mexico. Besides that, government should focus on labor
intensive projects in road construction and maintenance.
The infrastructure winners are: 1) Gerdau, 2) Tenaris, 3) ICA, 4) CICSA & 5) Cemex.
The other 10 stocks discussed are: 6) Petrobras, 7) Eletrobras, 8) ALL, 9) CCR, 10)
Telmex, 11) America Movil, 12) GMexico, 13) Asur, 14) PAC & 15) Megacable.
The economics corner: further GDP growth downgrades
Our economists have further revised down 2009 GDP growth forecasts across the
board. In Brazil, our new estimate is +1.2% (from +1.5%), Mexico -1.5% (from
-0.5%), Chile +1.9% (from +2.4%), Argentina -1.2% (from -0.9%), Colombia
+0.8% (from +2.0%) and, finally, Peru +5.2% (from +5.5%).
Table of Contents
Overview ............................................................................................ 3
Waiting for a little bit longer… impatiently................................................................................3
Model Portfolio – vs MSCI Latin America........................................ 4
Model Portfolio – vs Brazil IBX-50.................................................... 5
Index target and valuation................................................................ 6
Trade ideas......................................................................................... 7
Long only .................................................................................................................................7
Risks ........................................................................................................................................7
Strategy outlook................................................................................ 8
Waiting for signs that the economic cycle has bottomed.........................................................8
Waiting for details on the Financial Stability Plan......................................................................9
Investment strategies .............................................................................................................11
Strategy spotlight............................................................................ 15
Infrastructure boost: solid or shaky foundations? ...................................................................15
Brazil: the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC) ......................................................................15
Mexico: the National Infrastructure Program (NIP) .................................................................21
Chile: the Fiscal Stimulus Plan (FSP) .......................................................................................26
Appendix................................................................................................................................28
Company mentioned list .........................................................................................................32
The Economics corner..................................................................... 33
Overview................................................................................................................................33
Brazil ......................................................................................................................................34
Mexico ...................................................................................................................................40
Chile .......................................................................................................................................46
Argentina................................................................................................................................48
Colombia................................................................................................................................54
Peru........................................................................................................................................57
Performance review ........................................................................ 60
DB Model Portfolio .................................................................................................................60
Latam Equity Strategy reports guide ............................................ 61
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