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雷达卡
Electrical Equipment & Multi
Industry
Monthly Macro Meter
This monthly report is designed to provide a snapshot on trends across the
industrial economy and includes specific industry data pertinent to the stocks in
the EE/MI sector. We gather both relevant government and independent industry
data for the most important end markets.
• Global macro data still negative – meter remains below “soft”. Global
macroeconomy continued to contract, as measured by JPM’s global ISM
survey, which came in at 34.9 in January (December 33.7, November 36.4). The
reading represents the second sharpest monthly contraction of the
manufacturing sector since the survey began in 1998, with December the alltime
low. New orders (30.0) contracted at a slower rate than in December
(25.8). The OECD leading indicator index continues to decline, down 3.4% y/y,
suggesting further weakness ahead.
• US PMI readings off historical lows, but business activity remains
depressed. The US ISM Manufacturing Index ticked up to 35.6 in January (from
32.4), but was still the second-lowest reading since 1980. The new orders
component came in at 33.2 (from 23.1 in December), and inventories came
down to 37.5 (from 39.6). The order-inventory spread tightened to -4.3 from an
all-time low of -16.5 last month. Meanwhile, industrial production further
deteriorated in January, down 9.9% (from down 7.6% y/y in December), and
January’s consumer confidence index reading of 37.7 is another all-time low.
• Weakness continues in Europe, China. Euro Area manufacturing PMI was
34.9 in January versus 33.9 in December, while November’s Euro Area
Industrial production fell 7.3%. Softness persisted in China: IP growth was 5.4%
y/y in December, matching November’s 7-year low, while the PMI came in at
42.2 (from 41.2 in December and 40.9 in November).
• Other interesting data points: German VDMA orders down 38% y/y and 27%
on 3mo rolling basis. M&T inventory/sales ratio increased to 1.44 from 1.41 last
month. December capacity utilization at 73.6, from 75.2. Oil/gas machinery
orders down 25% y/y. Baker Hughes rig count drops 247 units in December.
Baltic Dry Shipping Index up 22% m/m but down 87% y/y. NA Class 8
preliminary truck orders down 66%. HVAC orders down 43.9% in December.
Computer/Electronic orders down 11.2% y/y and 6.5% sequentially. Semi test &
assembly book-to-bill of 0.51.
Table of Contents
Industrial Company Monthly Indicators .................................6
Industrial Macro Environment...............................................11
U.S. Economic Indicators ..........................................................................................11
International Economic Indicators .............................................................................14
Other Industrial Indicators .........................................................................................17
Industry-Specific Monthly Data.............................................19
Aerospace & Defense ................................................................................................19
Automotive ................................................................................................................24
Construction/Housing ................................................................................................27
Energy........................................................................................................................32
Financial Services ......................................................................................................34
Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC)................................................38
Technology ................................................................................................................40
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