汇丰银行:全球证券市场投资策略报告2009年2月

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􀀗 Our Global Capex Composite lead indicator rose
(to -76) in January, following the rise in Chinese
indicator
􀀗 Regional summary: Americas & EMEA regional
capex lead indicators fell in Jan but APAC
indicator rose, though all 3 remain below their
12m moving average trendlines, and in outright
negative territory
􀀗 Industry summary: 3 global industry capex lead
indicators fell in Dec, but long cycle utilties and
process components improved, although all 5
are now below their 12m moving average
trendlines, in outright negative territory
Snowed in, but not frozen
Our monthly global chart book covers no fewer than 13 distinct global
capex cycles which collectively are the drivers behind Capital Goods
sector revenue growth. Our global composite lead indicator rose from a
rock-bottom -100 reading last month to a still weak -76 in the latest
reading. This is in line with our view that the Global Composite indictor
is likely to continue bumping along the bottom for the rest of H1 2009. It
is interesting, at least, to note that it was the China series which was the
cause of this month’s modest rebound. Given a more substantial stimulus
plan in the pipeline than most other major economies, there must at least
be a fighting chance that the market for Capital Goods in China could
continue to provide a pocket of resilience.

目录

Snowed in but not frozen 3
Charting the outlook for global 3
capex, industry by industry 3
Drilling down: by region 5
Drilling down: by subsector 6
Three key stock picks 8
General sector indicators 11
Americas 12
EMEA 13
Asia Pacific 14
Manufacturing 15
Americas 16
EMEA 17
Asia-Pacific 18
Construction 19
Americas 20
EMEA 21
Asia-Pacific 22
Transport 23
Commercial vehicles 24
Aerospace 25
Shipping 26
Process industries 27
Oil & Gas 28
Mining 29
Chemicals 30
Utilities 31
Americas 32
EMEA 33
Asia Pacific 35
Global sector coverage 35
Stock coverage 36
Revenue exposure 40
Summary data 42
Valuation data 50
Financials 58
Financials in USD 66
Consensus estimates 74
HSBC vs Consensus 78
Company profiles 86
Disclosure appendix 124
Disclaimer 129

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2009-2-23 13:51:00 上传

汇丰银行:全球证券市场投资策略报告2009年2月
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