2010年2月全球证券市场投资策略报告(免费)

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月全球证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PPT
        【页数】：93
        【目录或简介】：

Looking Back & Forward
A Tailspin Month: The 10 month old liquidity driven rally in global equities suffered a reversal in January as earlier than expected tightening in China, the debt crisis
in Greece and uncertainty over the financial sector reforms in the US drove investors to seek the security of safe haven assets. Increased demand for medium to
longer term maturity US treasuries saw 10Y yields falling by 22bps to 3.63%, over January. Safe haven currencies also rallied this month, with the USD TWI moving
up by 35bps, while the Japanese yen gained 5.6% against the Euro. January also saw the worst performance for commodities in the past 12 months. Sugar, coal
and platinum were the better performing commodities, in a month which also saw a fall in inflows into commodity ETFs.
The MSCI World index plunged -6.1% from its highs, ending the month down by -4.1%. Amongst regional indices, Japan outperformed all major developed regions
as well as the MSCI EM index, while at a sector level global Healthcare (-0.8%), Consumer Staples (-1.5%) and Industrials (-1.6%) were the best performers, with
Materials (-8.7%) and Tech (-6.3%) the worst.
On balance, the global economic recovery showed mixed signs in many of the leading indicators (p.32) and sentiment indices (p.33). There are increasing signs of
divergence in monetary policy across the world, with renewed easing in Japan while emerging Asia is taking the first steps out of easy liquidity regimes. Moreover, a
stabilizing global economy has led the markets to begin to price in rate hikes despite central bank rhetoric. However, the current sovereign risk scares in Greece and
the previous one in Dubai continue to underline the uncertainty that is creating expectations for a bumpy recovery.
Europe
European markets declined 5.9% in January, suffering the biggest fall since Feb 2009. The markets peaked on 8th Jan (current cycle peak) and then plunged 7%.
European financial markets suffered from a series of bad news including concerns over Greece’s sovereign debt, policy tightening in China, weak commodities prices
and Obama’s banking initiatives. The dollar rose to a six-month high against the euro and the euro posted its biggest monthly drop against the yen in a year, as
sentiment deteriorated over the fiscal health of some selected EMU members.
Tech (2.4%), Consumer Staples (-2%) and Health Care (-3.4%) were the best performing sectors this month, while Materials (-9.2%), Financials (-8.7%) and
Telecom (-8.%) lagged the rest of the index. Among countries, Denmark (3.1%) and Finland (2.3%) were the outperformers, while Spain (-11.8%) and Greece (-
10.4%) were the worst performers this month. Small Caps outperformed large caps reversing their previous month, while Growth continued to outperform value.
Europe remains cheap relative to the developed world, trading at a discount on a 12-month forward PE basis (p. 46). Among the industry groups, energy, banks and
pharma look cheap, but consumer durables, real estate, and autos look less attractive than usual (pg 58).
Our European Strategy team has recently recommended going underweight European equities on a six month basis and to sell into any near term strength. The
team expects strong earnings growth in 2010, leading to the start of stimulus withdrawal and struggling equity markets (“Sell into strength as the tightening phase has
started” Teun Draaisma, 1/25/2010).
Neutral/Weak economy data: UK’s GDP rose 0.1% in the fourth quarter after contracting 0.2% during the prior three-months as service-based activity and
manufacturing expanded slightly to bring the region out of its longest recession on record. GDP fell short of economists’ expectations for a 0.4% rise. Regional
surveys and sentiment indicators continued to be mixed this month. The pan European PMI Manufacturing index rose to 51.6 (inline with expectations). The ZEW
economic sentiment indicator disappointed for the fourth straight month, plunging below expectations to 47.2 (vs. 50.4 in the previous month) while the European
consumer confidence came slightly below market expectations and Germany’s IFO business climate indicator improved for the 10th consecutive month. Better than
expected, Euro Area Industrial production rose 1% m/m in November while industrial orders fell short of expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 10%, matching
the jobless rate in the U.S., from a downwardly revised 9.9% in November.

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