2010年3月印度证券市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月印度证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：37
        【目录或简介】：


India Budget: It Was All About
Fiscal Consolidation
If there was one single message from Budget F2011
– it was fiscal consolidation. The government aims to
cut the fiscal deficit to 5.5% of GDP in F2011 from 6.7%
of GDP in F2010. The Finance Minister also gave a
commitment to cut the fiscal deficit to 4.8% of GDP by
F2012 and further to 4.1% of GDP by F2013. This was
the first budget after two years that focused on
maintaining the growth of plan expenditure
(development expenditure), while containing non-plan
expenditure. The budget targets divestment collections
of Rs400 billion, much higher than our expectation of
Rs250 billion. Most importantly, continuing with last
year’s budget approach, the Finance Minister has been
conservative in assuming GDP growth and tax revenue
growth assumptions, implying that if the government
manages to meet the targets of divestment and 3G
auction license fees, we see a good chance the
government will achieve a lower deficit than budgeted.
Market Implications: The market's rally post the
budget reflects a realistic and progressive F2011
budget. The government is achieving fiscal
consolidation program which is positive for earnings
growth and market performance. The key risk factors in
what seems to be a very strong growth environment are
a combination of rising inflation and fragile risk appetite.
We remain positive on Indian equities and are buyers of
dips. Key trades are in state-owned banks, discretionary
consumption and industrials.

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