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In the overview this month entitled Asian benchmark bonds: Power to stay in the game, we take a closer
look at 16 Asian corporate benchmark issuers. As a group, we believe the Asian benchmark issuers are
the best equipped to enter the current economic downturn given their good access to capital, experienced
management teams and core credit strengths, which include quasi-sovereign status, strong utility-like cash
flow streams and good liquidity. We also look at relative value of the Asian benchmarks in light of the
spread tightening over the past several months and weak liquidity. We conclude with our top trade calls,
which include Vedanta’10s, PLN’11s, SK Broadband’12s and Hynix Semiconductor’17s.
The Asian credit research team met 34 accounts across the US during the period of 20th Jan to 30th Jan
2009. All the credit accounts we met agreed that there is No quick fix to the global credit market. Key
areas of discussion were macro strategy and Asian banking systems, while less time was spent on the
Asian corporate sector. This was completely different from last year, when investors were primarily
focused on Indian banks and high-yield Asian corporates, particularly the Chinese property sector. We
include a trip note in this issue outlining our top-down view on Asian sovereigns, banks and corporates
together with trading strategies.
In the credit strategy section entitled On target, we argue that spread compression in the Asian credit
market may last till the end of Q1 on onshore support, owing to big spread differentials between USD and
local currency denominated debts, and asset switching, as credits become more attractive relative to
equities. However, deterioration in real economies and a rise in bank write-downs and corporate defaults
may set the stage for a Q2 correction when onshore bids fade, as locals become fully loaded with large
issuance in Q1.
Indonesia is the highlight in this month’s sovereign section. The deteriorating economic outlook is likely
to lead to disappointing revenue performance, enlarging the budget deficit. Already, the government has
revised its 2009 fiscal deficit target from 1.5% to 2.5% of GDP. While this may not necessarily signal a
marked deterioration in Indonesia’s long-term debt viability, we are concerned that the market will have
difficulties absorbing burgeoning supply over the course of this year. We remain neutral on the
Indonesian sovereign credit.
We include reports on five Asian benchmark corporates, including BW Group, Hynix Semiconductor,
Noble Group, Perusahaan Listrik Negara and Swire Pacific, for more detailed credit analysis of names
highlighted in this month's overview.
目录
Overview 3
Investor trip notes: No quick fix 18
Credit Strategy 24
Focus List 34
Sovereign Risk Analysis 43
Monthly Focus: Republic of Indonesia 44
Republic of Korea 46
Federation of Malaysia 47
Republic of Singapore 47
Company Report 51
BW Group 52
Hynix Semiconductor 56
Noble Group 62
Perusahaan Listrik Negara 68
Swire Pacific 72
Company News & Analysis 77
Financial Institutions 78
Corporates 79
Asia Credits Coverage 102
Spread and Curve Charts 103
Appendix 109
HSBC Databank 110
Asian Yankee/Eurobond Secondary Trading Levels
as of 4/2/2009 128
Asian Rating Timeline 132
Disclosure appendix 138
Disclaimer 149
Contents
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