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'Slogdog' Millionaires
Perspectives and Portfolios
Asia Pacific Equity Strategy
Adrian MowatAC
(852) 2800-8599
adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
Rohan Ghalla
(91-22) 6719-8289
rohan.d.ghalla@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan India Private Limited
Rajiv Batra
(91-22) 6695 3224
rajiv.j.batra@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan India Private Limited
See page 78 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
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Figure 1: Asia relative to the world
90
110
130
150
170
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
APx J / World
EM Asia / World
Source: MSCI, Datastream, 27 February 2009.
Overweight markets:
China, South Korea (Tactical),
Thailand
and The Philippines
Underweight markets:
Hong Kong, Australia and
Indonesia
For our Key Trades Top Picks click here
to download the Bloomberg spreadsheet.
• The MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan index is below the low end of our 210-
260 range. Investor feedback is universally bearish. Developed markets
are at a 12-year low. But, encouragingly, emerging markets equities are
outperforming developed market equities, but we see this as more a
reflection of the latter's weakness. We acknowledge that making any
progress to generate growth and returns this year for policy makers or
investors will likely be a slog. In this report we revisit our rotate into
early cyclicals at the low end of the trading range.
• But our medium-term outlook remains positive, driven by our view that
aggressive monetary and fiscal actions will result in EM Asian
economies being first out of this recession. The market seems to have
little confidence in this view. But this seems understandable as for now
only China and India are generating a few encouraging economic data
points.
• Cyclicals in the US have started outperforming since 19 February,
despite the new low in the markets. We find this is encouraging. Early
cyclicals in Asia are trading at close to all-time lows. We would start
adding risk now. In this report, we highlight the absolute levels at which
we would accumulate the key early cyclicals in Asia.
• The momentum in EM currencies is negative. Our strategists do expect
this to reverse. Within Asia, the Korean Won is the outlier, down 18%ytd
vs -4%ytd for ADXY. We have tactically upgraded Korea from
underweight to overweight.
• The key risk that we see to Asian equities is their correlation to
developed markets, which are at their bear market lows. To defy this
gravity, local economic data need to improve soon; we note that China
will release combined January and February data early this month. For
more on risks to our views, please see page 19.
Table of contents
Slogdogs Millionaires ..............................................................3
Model Portfolio Changes .......................................................11
Risks........................................................................................19
Regional model portfolio by country....................................22
Regional model portfolio by sector ......................................23
Australia: Risk – returns?......................................................24
China: Domestic Upside ........................................................26
South Korea: Won Won situation..........................................28
Taiwan: Range bound by 1H09..............................................30
Hong Kong: Short-term concerns.........................................32
India: Moderating growth, slow response............................34
Singapore: No more a safe haven.........................................36
Malaysia: Looking for a stimulus..........................................38
Thailand: Narrowing political discount ...............................40
Indonesia: 2C’s - Commodity and Currency ........................42
Philippines: Easing the way out............................................44
Our extended markers ...........................................................46
Macro Monitor.........................................................................52
Market drivers.........................................................................53
Asia Pacific ex-Japan Big 100 ...............................................54
Asia Pacific Strategy Dashboards ........................................60
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