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Asia Vision
Can Asia save global growth?
We believe aggressive easing is unlikely to contain the global slowdown in the
near term, but we expect Asian equities to outperform global equity indices this
year. However, we believe that further macro concerns and lack of investor
appetite for equities will see Asia markets fall 16.4% in the next 12 months.
Table 1 : ABN AMRO asset allocation for Asia ex Japan
Overweight Neutral Underweight
China, Philippines, Malaysia Singapore, Korea, Taiwan, HK India, Indonesia, Thailand
Infrastructure, Utilities, Telecos,
Internet/Media, Financials
Energy, Consumer staples, Tech,
Health care, Property
Consumer Discretionary, Materials,
Transport, Plantations
Source: ABN AMRO
Global macro outlook remains dire
Uncertainty remains in the macroeconomic environment. The twin drivers of growth – exports
and consumption – are both slowing. ECRI and OECD CLI point to further downturn over the
next six months at least. Deflation is becoming an increasing possibility, which could see
asset values spiral downwards. We believe excess inventories will take time to work through
before demand pressures can build again, but if output flounders, then lower prices and
corporate profits could squeeze wages, forcing households into even more dire straits.
Can Asia come to the rescue?
2009 could be a year of global contraction. Our economists estimate GDP growth for G4
nations will be -1.5%. Considering that the G4 makes up the bulk of global GDP and that
Asia contributes almost half of the remainder, we believe Asia’s importance in the global
economy will increase. At the moment, we forecast 3.6% GDP growth for the region, which
would barely stave off a worldwide recession. Moreover, fiscal measures announced so far
will comprise a larger proportion of GDP than private consumption in the developed markets,
and we believe the potential boost to Asian growth could be higher.
Equities may be less desired as an asset class
With Asia a bigger driver of world GDP, we believe that out-performing markets in the region
should be relatively strong, even among global indices. The low equity allocation to Asia now
should spur buying when funds flows return. However, we remain unconvinced of positive
gains in equities. Further worries about economic data will take time to resolve, while there
may also be a lack of interest in equities as an asset class. With high-grade credit now
offering robust yields, investors may yet look to other opportunities in 2009.
MSCI Asia ex Japan to fall 16.4%; we like defensive stocks and early cyclicals
Given the macro uncertainty and our expectation of low interest in stock markets, we prefer
exposure to non-cyclicals, as well as sectors that may benefit from stimulus. We are
Overweight China, the Philippines and Malaysia, and Underweight India, Indonesia and
Thailand. On a sector basis, we like infrastructure, telecoms and Internet/media; we are
negative on materials, consumer discretionary and transport. We believe that if a market
recovery were to occur from here, financial stocks will be the first to run up. Stock picking will
become vital; we have highlighted several names using one of our screens.
Contents
Executive summary 3
We are cautious about our outlook for 2009. While we expect Asian markets to be
outperformers in the equity space, uncertainty will see investors remaining cautious.
We predict further downside to come, but believe that domestic cyclicals could
outperform.
3
Macro outlook – buckle up 3
Market strategy – navigating the global fog 3
Heading for a global contraction 6
Despite the best efforts of global policy-makers, attempts to prevent a recession
have failed. Negative global growth remains a possibility if Asia continues to slow,
but we believe the region will play an important role in 2009.
6
The deep freeze 6
Exploring zero-bound 9
The policy cavalry arrives: can Asia save global growth? 11
Risk aversion and capital flight is still crucial 16
Navigating the global fog 19
With limited visibility on earnings and valuations, we believe investors are unlikely to
take a long-term view. We expect to see range-bound markets moderating
downward. Overweight China, Philippines, telcos; Underweight India, Indonesia,
materials.
19
Country outlook 28
On the back of our continued focus on defensive growth in the 1H09, we remain
overweight China, and upgrade Malaysia and the Philippines. We have downgraded
Taiwan to Neutral, and India to Underweight.
28
MSCI Far East ex Japan sector relative performance vs OECD CLI 64
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