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stocks more attractive than gas stocks. We recommend
investors switch from Novatek into Rosneft, our top pick
among the Russian oil and gas stocks.
Choosing oil over gas, we recommend switching from
Novatek into Rosneft. We expect a tough year ahead for Gazprom and
Novatek and believe that Russian oil companies are less risky and represent
a more compelling investment case over a 12-month horizon. For Russian oil
companies, the negative impact of weak oil prices has been partially offset
by a weaker Rouble. But the sinking Rouble also led to a material decline in
domestic gas prices when expressed in US$ terms. The outlook for the
Russian gas companies is further darkened by the weak domestic gas
consumption that we now expect to decline by 10% in 2009. We do not
believe these factors to be fully priced in yet. We recommend investors
switch from Novatek, as the most exposed to the domestic gas market, into
Rosneft.
Rosneft is our top pick among Russian oil and gas stocks. We
think concerns over Rosneft’s ability to refinance its debt are overdone. The
stock has underperformed Lukoil even though Rosneft has a lower cost base
and should generate better results in a weak oil price environment.
Earnings and valuations cut on lower oil price and valuation
methodology change. We lower our oil price forecasts to US$50/bbl for
2009F and US$60/bbl for 2010F – in line with the latest Brent forward curve.
We switch our valuation methodology from DCF to EV/EBITDA and
EV/DACF multiples. Our DCF valuations still indicate strong upsides, but we
no longer believe they can be realised within the next 12 months. The
combined effect of these two changes is a 30-70% drop in our 12-month
forward target prices for the Russian and Kazakh oil and gas majors.
Contents
Summary 3
Valuation 5
Oil price and currency sensitivity 8
Russian oil services update 11
Company by company 13
Financials 21
Disclosures Appendix 30
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