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13 February 2009
Austrian Stock Ideas
Oesterreichische Post,
Intercell
Matthias Pfeifenberger
Research Analyst
(49) 069 910 31948
matthias.pfeifenberger@db.com
Andreas Neubauer, DVFA
Head of Research
(49) 69 910 31900
andreas.neubauer@db.com
Top Picks - Intercell, Oesterreichische Post
With the Q4 earnings season still having to reflect a horrible quarter and the fact
that 09E outlooks could bear more downside for street estimates, we see Intercell
well positioned and unimpressed by macro risks, with definitive triggers in the
pipeline for H1. In a world where financing is scarce and re-financing desperately
sought but increasingly expensive, investments distinguished by net cash
positions and scope for material payout are even more attractive. Austrian Post is
offering these characteristics and additional triggers (special div, new postal law).
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Periodical
Top picks
Intercell AG (ICEL.VI),EUR24.70 Buy
Oesterreichische Post AG (POST.VI),EUR26.14 Buy
Companies featured
Intercell AG (ICEL.VI),EUR24.70 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (EUR) 0.12 0.14 0.02
P/E (x) 198.5 181.6 –
EV/EBITA (x) 351.9 – –
Oesterreichische Post AG (POST.VI),EUR26.14 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (EUR) 2.76 2.85 2.72
P/E (x) 11.2 9.2 9.6
EV/EBITA (x) 13.5 11.9 11.1
Schoeller-Bleckmann (SBOE.VI),EUR22.70 Sell
2008A 2009E 2010E
DB EPS (EUR) 3.61 2.37 1.78
P/E (x) 13.9 9.6 12.8
EV/DACF (x) – – –
Vienna Insurance (VIGR.VI),EUR22.25 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (EUR) 4.67 4.61 4.29
P/E (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0
P/EVS (x) 1.7 0.7 0.7
Wienerberger (WBSV.VI),EUR9.39 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
DB EPS (EUR) 3.46 1.85 0.55
P/E (x) 13.7 5.1 17.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.4 3.4 4.4
Research Team
Andreas Neubauer, DVFA
Head of Research
+49 69 910-31900
andreas.neubauer@db.com
Christian Bader
+43 1 53181-156
christian.bader@db.com
James Brand
+44 20 754 74705
james.brand@db.com
Alexander Hendricks
+49 69 910-31928
alexander.hendricks@db.com
Lucas Herrmann
+44 20 754 73636
lucas.herrmann@db.com
Michel Leuchten
+44 20 754 50470
michael.leuchten@db.com
Matthias Pfeifenberger
+49 69 910-31948
matthias.pfeifenberger@db.com
Lars Slomka
+49 69 910-31942
lars.slomka@db.com
Bastian Synagowitz
+49 69 910-36126
bastian.synagowitz@db.com
Paolo Tamagnini
+44 20 754 58483
paolo.tamagnini@db.com
Global Markets Research Company
Intercell (Buy): With Australian approval on ICEL’s JE vaccine already granted, a
positive CHMP opinion in Europe represents a de facto approval by historic
standards. Despite having been delayed, FDA approval is expected shortly after
the Feb ACIP conference has resolved remaining formal issues. Along with market
launch, ICEL will start to generate first sustainable revenue streams and, while
partially de-risking the investment case, evolve to a fully integrated vaccines
player. Beyond JE vaccines, H2 offers more triggers - PIII initiation is expected for
a traveler’s diarrhea vaccine patch and PII for a pandemic influenza vaccine patch.
Oesterreichische Post (Buy): In preparation of a pot. mail market liberalization
(<50g, 2011E at earliest), mgt continues to streamline the business model, mainly
via outsourcing of branches (from c.1,300 to c.300 in 5yrs, thereof 300 as well as
1,000 job cuts until end-09E), and logistics, resulting in an improved cost base.
Following liberalization, a new postal market law should prevent cherry picking and
wage dumping by market entrants and provide for beneficiary price differentiation
between urban and rural routes. With Post’s balance sheet net cash at c.E350m
and a material special dividend likely, implied payout could exceed 90% of FCF.
Other companies featured / Company updates
Schoeller-Bleckmann (Sell) – prelim 08, initiation of coverage: DB sector
teams project Brent at USD 45/bbl in 09E as well as the global rig count to shrink
by 20% in 09E and 5% in 2010E. With key oil parameters tumbling, we expect
consensus EPS for SBO to still materially come down for 09E and 10E (stock 70%
Buy-rated, DBe 18% and 27% below cons for 09 and 10E). With order backlog still
material but having decreased by 13% yoy at prelim 08 (E216m), SBO prospects
09E performance in line with a weaker development in the oil service industry.
Vienna Insurance (Buy) – initiation of coverage: VIG has maintained a prudent
investment strategy with low exposure to equity, a high-quality bond portfolio and
no presence of toxic assets. Its real estate sensitivity is high but fully manageable,
its solvency position strong and leverage well below sector average. Having
caused recent underperformance, CEE exposure is disliked by investors - with
conservative growth assumed, we consider VIG a strong relative investment with
a free option for CEE growth (mainly exposed to CZ/SK) to re-emerge longer-term.
Wienerberger (Hold) – prelim 08, 09E prospects: As underlined by WIE’s recent
prelim 08 reporting, housing markets continue to weaken and the impact from the
crisis is even spilling over to growth/margin sweet-spots in CEE. Supported by
mgt statements, we expect a material dividend cut (E0.5) for 08, a revenue decline
(-10%) in 09E and see profitability hampered by additional restructuring measures
(10+ plant closures) and potential for more GW impairments. While prelim 08
results should weigh in the short-term, key negatives are known for long now.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary........................................................................... 4
Company Pages ................................................................................. 6
Valuation/Risks................................................................................ 16
Rec/PT changes L3M....................................................................... 18
Directors’ dealings L3M.................................................................. 19
Derivatives market L3M.................................................................. 23
Macro view....................................................................................... 26
Corporate calendar.......................................................................... 27
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