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DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY/GOVERNMENT SERVICES
MONTHLY REVIEW (FEBRUARY 2009)
Key Points
• February 2009 Update. In this month’s review we provide readers with our opinion on
various aspects of the cyber security debate. We discuss how the competitive markets in
cyber security may evolve, who the primary players might be, and we pose the question,
“Who will control the cyber-domain?” Furthermore, a discussion pertaining to how the DOD
may address future cyber training and longer-term budgeting for cyber operations is
included. Finally, as we are in the midst of a “cyber cold war,” we offer our humble opinion
on how we would like to see the government’s “joint response” to cyber security set over the
next decade. As always, please feel free to contact us with your comments or suggestions by
phone, or email defense@bbandtcm.com.
• Performance Review. Since December 31, 2008, the S&P 500 Index, S&P IT, S&P
Aerospace & Defense, and Nasdaq Composite indices decreased 18.6%, 7.2%, 21.4%, and
12.6%, respectively. By comparison, our universe of Defense Technology coverage
depreciated 18.4% over the same period and was down 38.7% from its average rolling 52-
week high. Our universe of Government Services coverage was down 9.3% over the same
period and was down 25.9% from its average rolling 52-week high.
• Estimate Revisions. Since December 31, 2008, the companies we track showed CY’09
EPS estimates decreasing by an average of 7.7%, according to First Call. A breakdown of the
group shows 16 companies with increased EPS expectations and 32 with decreased EPS
expectations during the period. The Homeland Security–focused firms fared best with an
average decrease of 0.4% versus a 0.9% decrease in the Government Services segment, an
11.0% decrease in Defense Technology, and an 11.4% decrease in expectations for A&D.
• Short Interest Report. From late January 2009 to late February 2009, short positions
within our entire universe of monitored companies increased 3.8% (vs. a decrease of 1.6%
last month). Within Government Services, four of the six companies we cover showed a
decrease in short interest over the period, and within our Defense Technology coverage, all
seven companies we cover showed an increase in short interest over the period. Finally, as a
group, 19 of the 55 companies we monitor showed a decrease in short positions as reported
in January 2009.
• Prime Contract Recompetes through December 31, 2009. We provide data on
anticipated federal government prime contract recompetes through December 31, 2009.
Data is sorted by anticipated award date and lists the department requesting services,
program name, current status of the recompete, and estimated projected value of the new
contract.
• Comparable Company Analysis, Additional Schedules, and Charts. On pages 14–
24 we provide a comparable company analysis segmenting Defense Technology,
Government Services, Diversified Aerospace & Defense, and Homeland Security–focused
firms. Data points include BB&TCM estimates for covered companies and First Call
consensus estimates for non-covered firms. We also provide: Stock Performance Summary;
Insider Ownership & Major Shareholders; Calendar Q1’09 Contract Award Review; Top 20
Department of Defense and Federal Civilian Opportunities; Industry “Revolving Door”;
Upcoming Conferences; and Recent BB&TCM Research Reports.
CONTENTS
February 2009 Update...................................................................................................................3
Stock Performance Summary ......................................................................................................10
Comparable Company Analysis ................................................................................................... 14
Short Interest Report ...................................................................................................................26
Insider Transactions and Major Shareholders............................................................................27
Contract Award Review................................................................................................................29
Government Services................................................................................................................29
Defense Technology..................................................................................................................32
Prime Contract Recompetes ........................................................................................................34
Top 20 Department of Defense & Federal Civilian Opportunities............................................. 41
Department of Defense ............................................................................................................ 41
Federal Civilian........................................................................................................................43
Industry “Revolving Door”—Who’s In, Who’s Out? ...................................................................45
Upcoming Hearings & Industry Conferences .............................................................................46
Recent BB&T Capital Markets Research Reports .......................................................................47
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