2010年1月美国金融技术行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月美国金融技术行业研究报告
        【作者】：Duncan-Williams证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：58
        【目录或简介】：

With all of our company EPS estimates in-line or above consensus, we expect solid
fourth quarter results for the Financial Technology companies under our coverage.
We expect 2010 EPS guidance to at least meet consensus expectations, however, we
think 2010 revenue guidance will likely come in slightly below expectations. While
last quarter we expected company-specific drivers to produce the majority of the upside,
this quarter, we are looking for the weak dollar and better than expected economic
strength to drive some upside. With our fundamental view tilted towards estimate upside
and what we believe are reasonable valuations even after strong 2009 stock price
performance, we remain bullish on our coverage universe as evidenced by our Buy
ratings on over 80% of our coverage and no Sells. However, our enthusiasm is tempered
somewhat as our estimates are now much closer to consensus whereas heading into
3Q09 results our estimates had been more significantly above consensus. Looking
ahead, in general, we think we will need economic strength to drive any significant EPS
upside and stock price performance rather than the numerous company-specific drivers
that aided results and stock prices in 2009.
n Our conviction in our 4Q09 estimates is high across the board, but we highlight
Visa (V), and MasterCard (MA) as the two names where we have the highest
conviction. Based on the weak dollar and numerous signs of solid consumer spending
trends in the fourth quarter, we are raising our estimates slightly for both Visa and
MasterCard. We are also raising our 12-month price targets based on higher estimates
and rolling our targets out to our 2011 estimates. For Visa, our new F1Q10 EPS estimate
matches the First Call consensus of $0.91 while our new 4Q09 EPS estimate for
MasterCard is $0.01 above the consensus of $2.44. Our new price target for Visa is $100
(up from $90) and our new target on MasterCard is $300 (up from $270).
n In addition to Visa and MasterCard, we also highlight Euronet (EEFT) and Lender
Processing Services (LPS) as two names that we think our setting up well heading
into earnings since both stocks have weakened recently, yet we remain confident in
both the short-term and longer-term outlook.
n We also highlight Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) and Fiserv (FISV)
among our favorite names for 2010. For FIS, we see an attractive combination of
conservative 2010 guidance and a relatively low valuation. We think Fiserv could guide
2010 EPS above consensus based on further cost cutting while we also believe the
valuation offers limited downside risk. With any modest improvement in organic
revenue growth at either company, we think the shares could see significant multiple
expansion from current levels.
n The Financial Technology stocks within our coverage universe performed well
during the fourth quarter of 2009 with the group median ahead 8.4% vs. 10.3% for
the NASDAQ Composite Index, 9.7% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and 8.3%
for the S&P 500. MA was the best performer (+28.4%) in our coverage during the
quarter while FIS was the worst performer (-5.7%). For the full-year 2009, the stocks in
our coverage significantly outperformed the market with the median ahead 54.2%, far
out-pacing the NASDAQ Composite Index (+43.9%), the Dow Jones Industrial Average
(+18.8%), and the S&P 500 (+23.5%). GCA was the best performing stock in 2009
(+237.4%) while Jack Henry was the worst performer (+19.2%).

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 Expectations Conservative 美国 金融 技术 研究报告 行业