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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球博彩行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：37
【目录或简介】：
We are initiating coverage of the Gaming industry with
an In-Line industry view following strong YTD
performance (+40%, on average). We are more bullish
than consensus on Singapore, believe in the long-term
growth profile of the Macau mass market, and see select
opportunities in the US regional markets, but do not
forecast a meaningful recovery in Las Vegas until 2011.
We are Overweight PENN, Equal-weight LVS and
WYNN, and Underweight BYD.
In Singapore, we believe that new properties will ramp
slowly in 2010 and that “population will trump
regulation” in the long term. Low gaming penetration
and a high propensity to game in SE Asia should offset
relatively strict gaming regulations and drive our
above-consensus 2012 EBITDA projections for LVS’s
Marina Bay Sands property (opening in April).
As more difficult growth comparisons anniversary in
Macau in 2H10, we expect mass-market revenue
growth to exceed VIP. We see the most potential for
WYNN on new project returns and a Cotai project.
Expectations for a 2H10 recovery in Las Vegas are
premature. We project minimal EBITDA benefits from
improved group demand until leisure rates rebound in 2011.
New project openings and the legalization of new gaming
markets will drive the regional operators.
We summarize our coverage universe as follows:
􀂃 PENN (OW): Strong development pipeline, including
Columbus, OH project, offsets regional competition
• LVS (EW): Strong YTD performance offsets continued
execution in Macau and the ramp of Marina Bay Sands in
Singapore
• WYNN (EW): Strong YTD performance offsets
above-consensus expectations for new Macau projects
• BYD (UW): High exposure to LV locals and AC; lack of a
meaningful positive catalyst; expensive valuation
Table of Contents
Key Gaming Industry Debates
Summary 3
Debate 1: Macau Long-Term Growth Rate 4
Macau Revenue and Visitation Model 8
Macau Supply Model 8
Debate 2: Macau New Project Returns 9
Debate 3: Singapore Market Size 11
Singapore Market Model 17
Debate 4: Las Vegas Strip Recovery 18
Las Vegas Revenue and Visitation Model 21
Las Vegas Room Model 22
Debate 5: Regional Market Recovery 23
Debate 6: Liquidity issues 25
Company Risk-Reward Snapshots
Penn National – OW rated 27
Boyd Gaming – UW rated 28
Las Vegas Sands – EW rated 29
Wynn Resorts – EW rated 30
Gaming Universe Comp Table 31
Gaming Operator EBITDA by Jurisdiction 32
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