瑞士银行:中国汽车行业研究报告2009年3月

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Domestic brands gaining ground
􀂄 Sector view—stabilising passenger vehicle sales
January-February combined passenger vehicle (PV) sales were up 6% YoY, helped
by strong mini-van sales (+31% YoY supported by the government’s rural vehicle
subsidies). PV sales—excluding mini-vans—were flat YoY, while commercial
vehicle (CV) sales (January and February combined) were down 7% YoY. Both
numbers were inflated by the 2008 snowstorms and we expect March YoY growth
to be negative. Notably, PV (excluding mini-vans) MoM sales momentum appears
to have stabilised and we believe prospects for the PV sector have improved, albeit
with a significant mix deterioration. We are incrementally more positive on
volume, noting the impact of government policies on auto demand was stronger
than anticipated. We expect the government to introduce additional stimulus
measures should volume show any further sign of weakness.
􀂄 Sector strategy—own brand advantage
The table above highlights the YTD 2009 market share and growth of own brand
manufacturers. We believe current market conditions—government support for
own brand development and the market’s temporary preference for smaller
vehicles—provide short-term opportunities for domestic brands and companies
such as Great Wall Motor to gain market share. We also expect foreign joint
ventures to: 1) cut prices more aggressively; and 2) introduce smaller engine
versions for existing models, which in turn would compress margins and ROE.

Contents page
UBS auto coverage 3
Industry trends 5
— Sales analysis ......................................................................................................5
— Industry data ........................................................................................................8
— Sector top 10 manufacturers ................................................................................9
Performance and valuation 11
— Hong Kong listed auto manufacturers ................................................................11
— China listed auto manufacturers.........................................................................12
Company pages 15
— Beiqi Foton Motor (600166.SS)..........................................................................16
— BYD Company Ltd. (1211.HK) ...........................................................................18
— Chongqing Changan Auto (000625.SZ)..............................................................19
— CNHTC Jinan Truck (000951.SZ).......................................................................20
— Denway Motors (0203.HK) .................................................................................21
— Dongfeng Motor Group (0489.HK)......................................................................23
— FAW Car (000800.SZ)........................................................................................25
— Great Wall Motor (2333.HK)...............................................................................27
— Shanghai Automotive (600104.SS) ....................................................................29
— Sinotruk (3808.HK).............................................................................................31

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有点儿黑啊。。。。。。。。。。。不过考虑一下