摩根大通：中国汽车行业研究报告2009年5月

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We were looking for a 10% Y/Y rise in China’s passenger vehicle
growth in FY09: In our report, “Staging an earlier than expected
recovery in FY09”, we had noted that China’s auto sector is seeing an
earlier-than-expected recovery in FY09 due to: (1) a series of supportive
policies; (2) China urban households’ real disposable income growth
started to rise in 4Q FY08; and (3) the positive wealth effect of the rising
property and stock markets as of late FY08.
• We now forecast a stronger 24% Y/Y rise in China’s FY09
passenger vehicle sales: We believe the recovery in China’s car market
could turn out to be far stronger than expected, as highlighted by China’s
strong car sales data and our channel checks with dealers. Also, the
Chinese government has kept launching new supportive policies to
stimulate car consumption. On May 19, 2009, China released a Rmb5B
financial subsidy plan to boost car sales. Notably, in coming months, we
expect China to release new auto financing rules to provide easier and
cheaper access to auto loans to boost car sales.
• We maintain DongFeng Motor as our top pick: We raise our FY09
and FY10 earnings forecasts for DongFeng by 12.0% and 14.3%,
respectively, and increase our Dec-09 PT from HK$6.3 to HK$8.5, based
on one standard deviation above its median historical 12-month forward
P/B ratio, translating into 13.0x FY10E P/E. Also, we raise our FY09 and
FY10 earnings estimates for Denway Motor by 2.1% and 3.6%,
respectively, and increase our Dec-09 PT from HK$3.1 to HK$3.85,
based on 1.73x FY10E P/B, representing a 10% discount to its historical
average 12-month forward P/B, translating into 12.0x FY10E P/E. We
refrain from upgrading Denway because: (1) we believe its earnings
could have peaked in FY06 due to lack of competitive new models; (2)
de-rating pressure as the company failed to return excess cash to
shareholders in FY08; and (3) its FY09E earnings may continue to
disappoint despite the strong recovery in China’s car market. We raise
our FY09 and FY10 earnings estimates for Great Wall Motor by
45%/38% on far stronger-than-expected sedan sales, and raise our Dec-
09 PT from HK$5.3 to HK8.3, based on 1 x FY09E P/B, representing a
10% discount to its historical average 12-month forward P/B of 1.1x,
translating into 11.4x FY10 P/E.

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关键词：汽车行业研究报告 行业研究报告 研究报告 汽车行业 摩根大通 中国 研究报告 行业 汽车 摩根大通

望“洋”兴叹

怎么会这么贵？？？

楼主手抖了吧……这个价怎么买啊……

只比Excel能容下的最大数据量少一个，果然天价。

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楼主是在资产置换吗？

不是一般的贵啊

愤怒阿，明抢阿！！！

我们都是打酱油的，呵呵～