发帖
雷达卡
Buy-and-hold a time-consuming strategy
Too early to Overweight construction
Despite deregulation, liquidity injection and other strenuous efforts by
the government, the housing market shows no sign of recovery. The
overseas market is unlikely to pick up until 2H09. A lukewarm response
to the construction sector’s restructuring is also taking a toll. We
reiterate Neutral on construction and maintain the sector’s target PER of
10.5x. It would be a time-consuming strategy to buy and hold
construction stocks.
PER of 9.5x offers short-term trading opportunity
Despite the bleak outlook, we believe the construction sector has a yield
gap of 7%p given the PER of 9.5x and risk-free interest rate of 3.72%
and offers short-term trading opportunities. The sector’s yield gap was
4.1%p on average since 2005 when the share prices started a secular
upturn. But chances are slim the rally in 2009 will be as strong as in
1999. A reasonable expectation is for the sector index to rebound to
180pt. The index has 17% upside from the current level of 154pt.
Solution to unsold pre-sale homes: Lower prices, economic
recovery or government rescue package
As a countermeasure to the economic downturn, the government has
sought to stimulate the construction sector and address the problem of
unsold pre-sale homes. But the demand-side stimulus is unlikely to
work because prices for pre-sale units are far higher than existing
homes and households cannot afford a new home purchase. Unless the
economy recovers and the prices of pre-sale homes come down, the
only option left is the injection of public money.
Overseas order momentum to revive in 2H09F
Overseas orders shrank 35.4% YoY for the first two months in 2009.
The 2009F overseas orders should drop 44.1% YoY in USD terms and
32.5% YoY in KRW terms. The overseas market is set to remain
dormant until 1H09 as customers defer their orders on expectations of
weakening raw material prices and lower project costs. Order
momentum should revive after 2H09F as the global economy narrows
its contraction from -1.7% in 2Q09 to -0.8% in 2H09 according to Global
Insight.
Samsung Engineering merits attention
Our top pick is Samsung Engineering given cash holdings of W700bn,
dividend yield of 3% and expected overseas order momentum in 2H09F.
Daelim Ind. has attractive valuations with a PBR of 0.5x despite
uncertainties over its financial aid to Samho Group. We draw attention
to Samsung C&T and GS E&C as these stocks made sharp retreats
since end-2008.
307768.pdf
(913.16 KB, 需要: 500 个论坛币)
京公网安备 11010802022788号
