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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球核能行业研究报告
【作者】：三星证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：98
【目录或简介】：
􀂄 CONTENTS
1. Global nuclear power-plant market p3
2. Why nuclear power generation
appeals
p6
3. Potential markets for Korean reactors p12
4. Global peer analysis p28
5. Bidding competitiveness p46
6. UAE project cost analysis p53
7. Top picks P60
Atomic growth
Power-plant construction market set for 20-year rebound
Nuclear
(OVERWEIGHT)
Global capacity to explode: A renaissance is about to begin in the nuclear power-plant
market, after almost two decades of recession. The International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) expects global nuclear capacity to expand from its current 373GW to between
512GW and 807GW by 2030 (growth of 37.3-116.4%), creating a nuclear plant
construction market worth KRW517t-1,240t. The market should turn out much bigger,
however, as facilities have operational requirements and need maintenance, repairs, fuel,
and new equipment for around 60 years after construction.
Why nuclear power is expanding: Nuclear power is increasingly being chosen over
other types of power generation, as: 1) it benefits countries in terms of energy security and
self-sufficiency, especially those that would otherwise suffer trade account imbalances due
to dependence on imported energy; 2) its generation costs are relatively stable, impervious
to abrupt changes in fossil-fuel prices; and 3) it is environmentally friendly, helping to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Kepco consortium likely to win up to 15 nuclear plant orders by 2020: Seeing
China, India, and the US as the most promising nuclear plant markets, we have analyzed
their order prospects. Based on such analysis, Korea’s Kepco-led consortium should win
as many as 15 nuclear plant orders by 2020, from countries such as Turkey, Jordan,
China, India, the US, and Finland.
• Turkey, Jordan: The Kepco consortium should win one of its first orders from Turkey
or Jordan, but on condition that Kepco owns and runs the nuclear reactors—ie,
assuming both financial and operational risk.
• China: The consortium will likely be able to export reactors to China, but only from
2015, as substantial technology transfer there is common and development of the APR+
technology (100% Korean) should be completed in 2012.
• India: If a Korea-India nuclear accord is signed this year, the Kepco consortium should
be assigned plant-construction projects in India’s nuclear energy parks, suggesting four
nuclear plant orders from 2013.
• US: The consortium is expected to win US nuclear plant orders from 2013, as the UAE
deal has highlighted the superiority of Korean reactors in terms of price competitiveness
and safety record.
• Finland: The Kepco consortium should receive one project from Finland, a nation
currently involved in litigations with Areva (France) after its failure to build nuclear
plants on schedule.
Kepco consortium’s competitiveness over global Big Four: Compared to the
global Big Four—Areva, Atomenergoprom, Toshiba (WEC), and GE-Hitachi—the Kepco
consortium has several advantages: 1) simplification and modularization in design—the
result of years of experience—which means lower building costs and shorter construction
periods; 2) localization of technology and equipment, including reactors; 3) the world’s
highest availability rate, backed by superior efficiency in operations and maintenance; and
4) the fact that major member Kepco has sole responsibility for price negotiations.
Top picks: Of the companies in the Korean consortium, those expected to gain most
from overseas nuclear plant orders (in order) are Korea Power Engineering Company
(Kopec: a Kepco subsidiary), Korea Plant Service and Engineering (KPS),
Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction (DHIC), Kepco, BHI, and Hyundai Engineering
& Construction. Among them, we recommend Kepco and DHIC as our top nuclear picks.
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