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雷达卡
China property monthly
April update: Last leg of the rally?
China
Property
Raymond Ngai, CFAAC
(852) 2800-8527
raymond.ch.ngai@jpmorgan.com
Lucia Kwong, CFA
(852) 2800-8526
lucia.yk.kwong@jpmorgan.com
Sunny Tam, CFA
(852) 2800-8524
sunny.wy.tam@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
See page 33 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
China developers’ share price index
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Datastream.
Primary transaction volume estimates
MM sqm
Apr-09 Mar-09 M/M
YTD
Y/Y
BJ 2.12 1.69 26% 109%
SH 2.56 2.31 11% 26%
HZ 0.69 0.40 73% 113%
GZ 0.80 0.64 26% 75%
SZ 0.64 0.69 -8% 160%
CQ 2.47 1.83 35% 92%
CD 1.03 0.92 12% 51%
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
• Strong sales continued in April—up 22% M/M and 125% Y/Y: The
Chinese property market recorded a further 22% growth in new home
sales in April after a robust 54% M/M growth in March. Combined sales
volume in the seven major cities which we track reached a record high of
10.3 million sq m, surpassing the previous peak of 9.9 million sq m in
August 2007. After three consecutive months of strong sales growth and
April sales reaching a new high, the physical property market has fully
recovered, underpinned mainly by the government’s positive policy
measures and a strong rebound in the stock market lately, in our view.
• May sales could still be good and will most likely be the peak: The
strong sales did not come with a price cut. Both primary and secondary
property prices have stopped falling and shown signs of rising in the past
1-2 months. Due to the high base for comparison, we believe sales are
likely to peak in April/May as most pent-up demand has been released
and we enter the low season in summer.
• Rally spreads to third- and fourth-tier stocks: Stock rotation into midand
small-cap stocks continues, as the valuation gap between them and
big caps is narrowing due to the strong recovery in the property market.
We maintain our view that big-cap stocks are fairly priced with limited
upside, but high-beta mid-and small-cap stocks are still trading at an
undemanding valuation compared to their historical peak. Most of them
are still trading 60-80% below their historical peak share prices in
October 2007 and below 1.0x P/BV. Among mid- and small caps, we see
the most trading upside for New World China Land, Zhong An, Shanghai
Forte, and Hopson, as they are trading at only 0.5-0.7x P/BV.
Table of Contents
China market review.................................................................3
Share price performance ..............................................................................................3
Our key calls ................................................................................................................3
Trading ideas................................................................................................................8
Major corporate actions.........................................................12
Land acquisitions .......................................................................................................12
Other actions/news.....................................................................................................12
National macro and industry movements ............................13
Shanghai and Hangzhou........................................................16
Shanghai ....................................................................................................................17
Hangzhou...................................................................................................................19
Beijing .....................................................................................20
Guangzhou..............................................................................23
Shenzhen ................................................................................26
Chongqing and Chengdu.......................................................29
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