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雷达卡
China Property Monthly
April update: Watch for May property sales; time for
rotational buying
• Markets saw lack of direction in April: Transaction volume
varied across cities in April for the six cities we tracked. There is
so far little indication whether property markets are out of the
woods yet though we saw a pickup in Guangzhou. As most
developers will launch their projects on Labour Day holiday and
afterwards, we expect volume to resume the uptrend in May.
• Further re-rating depends on property market performance.
The sector is trading at 18x/12.7x FY08/09E P/E amid the end of
the earnings season which lifted concerns of earnings downgrades
in the short-term. However, investors would need stronger proof
that the property markets are already out of the woods and credit
tightening can be eased to trigger a further re-rating.
• Switch to value plays with strong growth potential: We thus
suggest switching from the already expansive large-caps to lowvaluation
stocks. We continue to prefer R&F and KWG as the
Guangzhou property market warms up. We also prefer Shui On
Land as an investment property landlord, given its 23% discount to
clean-site NAV compared to 8-15% discount for HLP and Kerry.
Table of Contents
China market review.................................................................3
Share price performance ..............................................................................................3
Our key calls ................................................................................................................4
Key measures announced in April ...............................................................................8
Major corporate actions...........................................................9
Land acquisitions .........................................................................................................9
National macro and industry movements ............................10
Shanghai .................................................................................13
Beijing .....................................................................................15
Guangzhou..............................................................................18
Shenzhen ................................................................................21
Chongqing and Chengdu.......................................................24
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