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Gold prices are largely being debated
by bulls who believe that quantitative
easing will lead directly to higher
inflation and bears who point to
ongoing deflationary risks; these
competing influences should keep
prices in a wide, if volatile, range
For silver, we expect modestly weaker
prices based on sagging industrial and
jewelry demand; the resultant surplus
should be absorbed by robust ETF and
coin demand
Producer restraint will counter the fall off
in industrial and auto catalyst demand for
PGMs; an eventual auto recovery should
support platinum prices while dwindling
Russian stocks could buoy palladium
Metals price outlook and forecasts
Gold: Inflation fears are supporting gold, but should higher
consumer prices fail to materialize, longs may reduce
positions later in the year. Possible USD weakness remains a
potential source of support. Stagnant mine output, reduced
official sector sales, and robust ETF and retail demand are
also supportive factors. We believe rallies may be capped by
poor jewelry and EM demand and abundant scrap supplies.
Silver: Investors are also turning to silver as an inflation
hedge, mostly via the ETFs and coins. However, significant
declines in industrial and jewelry demand are feeing up
bullion for investment. Mine supply is growing moderately.
PGMs: Sliding global auto and industrial production will
likely limit demand this year, but production cuts should
moderate platinum and palladium surpluses. Also, palladium
could be supported by a reduction in Russian stockpile sales.
Quantitative battle brewing 3
HSBC gold outlook 7
Silver 30
Platinum 37
Palladium 45
Disclosure appendix 50
Disclaimer 51
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