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Our analysis of 13 development-stage
projects indicates that the optimum gold
price for project development is on
average cUSD125/oz higher than the
price used in the feasibility studies
􀀗 The actual performance of the 13 projects
we analyzed in 2005 argues that the gold
price “cushion” to ensure against
unexpected technical, financial, and
permitting challenges is amply warranted
􀀗 We introduce a simple rule of thumb
measure based on all-in production costs
to estimate the optimum development
price without the need for option models
In August 2005, we valued 13 development-stage projects using
both the traditional NPV approach as well as a real option
model, based on the feasibility studies for each of the projects.
While option theory argues that an undeveloped deposit has
inherent value because it could be developed economically if
the commodity price increases sufficiently, it doesn’t say when
or if the deposit should be developed once the commodity price
actually rises. NPV analysis tells us whether the project is
economic (or not) on the basis of certain assumptions, but it
doesn’t tell us whether the project is more valuable in its
undeveloped state.
The commodity price at which the NPV and option values are
equal provides a point of indifference above which project
development begins to make sense in terms of both NPV
models and option theory. There is, moreover, a price at which
NPV is maximized relative to the option value – this is what we
define as the optimum commodity price for project
development. With the increase in industry input costs, we find
that the “cushion” required to “insulate” development-stage
projects against technical, financial, and political uncertainty
has increased. In this report, we also introduce a simple rule of
thumb measure to estimate the optimum development price
without the use of option models. The optimum price is
approximately twice the all-in cost (expressed as USD/oz)
minus 18% of the prevailing gold price.
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