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为什么买房：地狱之路善意铺就
【财新网】（专栏作家 贝乐斯）“The road to hell is paved with good intentions.” “通往地狱的路是由善意铺就的。”
良好的初衷，却往往带来灾难性的后果。去年，无数人喊着“一定要跑赢CPI！”，冲进了股市。今年，无数人喊着“一定要跑赢CPI！”，冲进了楼市。
六年前，金融危机尘埃落定，美国政府的金融危机调查委员会询问了巴菲特，到底是什么造成了金融危机。巴菲特坦率地承认，他也没预见到金融危机的到来。但是，他却给出了自己的视角。
Brad Bondi [financial crisis inquiry commission]: What do you think it was, if you were to point to one of the single driving causes behind this bubble? What would you say?
问：你认为造成此次泡沫的一个驱动原因是什么？
Warren Buffett: Well, there’s a very interesting aspect of this, which will take aminute or two to explain; but what my former boss, Ben Graham, made an observation, 50 or so years ago to me that it really stuck in my mind and now I’ve seen evidence of it.
He said,“You can get in a whole lot more trouble in investing with a sound premise than with a false premise.”
答：这个很有意思，需要一两分钟来解释。但是我之前的老板格雷厄姆在50多年前曾经观察到一个现象，让我印象深刻，如今我已经看到了证据。他说“在投资上，基于一个合理的前提比基于一个错误的前提更能让你卷入大得多的麻烦。”
（巴菲特所引用的格雷厄姆的话，其实要说明的是：当一个说法明显不靠谱，荒诞不经时，没有什么人会轻易相信，并因此受害。但是，一个听上去很合理的说法，却有可能造成灾难。货币贬值，通胀上升，购买某种资产就能自动对抗贬值和通胀，这可能是一种听上去非常合理的说法。）
So after a while, the original premise, which becomes sort of the impetus for what later turns out to be a bubble is forgotten and the price action takes over.
过了一段时间，最初的前提变为了泡沫的动力。这一前提却被遗忘，价格的变化主导一切。
Now, we saw the same thing in housing. It’s a totally sound premise that houses will become worth more over time because the dollar becomes worth less. It isn’t because—you know, construction costs go up. So it isn’t because houses are sowonderful, it’s because the dollar becomes worth less, and that a house that was bought 40 years ago is worth more today than it was then.
我们在房地产市场看到了同样的现象。房产随美元贬值而升值，这是一个完全合理的前提。这并不是因为建筑成本升高，也不是因为房产有多好，而是因为美元贬值。所以40年前买的房在今天比当时值钱得多。
And since 66 or 67 percent of the people want to own their own home and because you can borrow money on it and you’re dreaming of buying a home, if you really believe that houses are going to go up in value, you buy one as soon as you can. And that’s a very sound premise. It’s related, of course, though, to houses selling at something like replacement price and not far outstripping inflation.
因为66%或67%的人想要拥有自己的房产，而且因为你能通过房子借钱，你梦想着买一处房产。如果你确实相信房产将升值，那你会尽快买房。这是一个非常合理的前提。当然这与房产以大约置换价格销售有关，而不是跑赢通胀。
So this sound premise that it’s a good idea to buy a house this year because it’s probably going to cost more next year and you’re going to want a home, and the fact that you can finance it gets distorted over time if housing prices are going up 10 percent a year and inflation is a couple percent a year. Soon the price action – or at some point the price action takes over, and you want to buy three houses and five houses and you want to buy it with nothing down and you want to agree to payments that you can’t make and all of that sort of thing, because it doesn’t make any difference: It’s going to be worth more next year. Once that gathers momentum and it gets reinforced by price action and the original premise is forgotten which it was in 1929.
所以这个合理的前提认为今年买房是个好主意因为明年想要买房子可能要花费更多。而由于可以借钱买房，如果房价每年涨10%而通胀每年几个百分点，这个合理的前提就逐渐被扭曲了。很快，价格的上涨就成为了主导。你想买三个，甚至五个房子，而且不付任何首付，你同意支付你根本负担不起的债务，等等类似的情况。因为没关系，房子明年会升值的。一旦这个势头积聚起来动力，并且通过价格的上涨自我强化，最初的前提就被忘了。1929年就是类似的情况。
巴菲特所说的是不是似曾相识？相信多年以后，还会有类似的总结，因为这就是人性，这就是市场运行的规律。
现在让我们再次审视那个看似合理的前提：“一定要跑赢CPI！”
CPI从定义上说就是消费品价格指数。如果看消费品的平均价格变化，无非是购买消费品的总资金除以消费品的数量。一个人再有钱，也不会一顿饭吃八个大肘子，吃一个扔七个。有钱人钱多了不会去买金斧子砍柴。因此，购买消费品的资金会随着消费者数量的增加，普通人的收入增加而增加。如果消费品的生产数量无法短期快速增加，消费品的价格自然上涨。说白了，通胀是穷人有钱造成的，而资产泡沫是富人有钱造成的。现在，普通人害怕穷人有钱造成的通胀，却借钱去参与富人有钱后所推动的资产泡沫。这个游戏的结果是什么？穷人都变成富人？还是富人从资产泡沫上涨中获益脱身离场，换为美元资产，穷人则背了一身债变成“负人”。
良好的初衷，合理的前提，却铺就了通往地狱之路。一旦人性被贪婪和恐惧所控制，让价格的变化主导一切，那么未来就只有一条单行线。作者从事投资行业，目前在某投资管理公司任顾问转自：http://opinion.caixin.com/2016-10-09/100994771.html
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