发帖
雷达卡
China Equity Strategy
Ample Liquidity to Back Economic Recovery, Higher Asset Prices
Loose monetary stance to continue — China is likely to maintain a loose
monetary policy that exceeds market expectations. The uneven recovery in the
economy will prevent the government from tightening policy too early. Chinese
banks are in a good position to sustain the current lending momentum.
Local govt-led infrastructure projects, housing development to drive investment
— After local government funding problems have been sorted out, FAI projects
have picked up. More important, a much stronger recovery in the property
market has prompted developers to resume construction activity. As public and
private investments pick up, we believe the trend is of better quality, more
sustainable and would have a bigger multiplier impact on the overall economy.
Consumption momentum set to catch up — Although consumer confidence has
stabilized, momentum is still lagging behind. Along with policy support, positive
wealth effects and potential loosening of consumer credit should help
consumption momentum catch up.
Investment strategy — Earnings expectations are being raised since late 1Q09,
led by property and banks. Industrial earnings upgrades could follow if the
economy manages some reflation. Markets have begun to trade toward the high
end of their historical range but could overshoot on ample liquidity. Our top
picks list has a financial and consumer bias.
目录
Overflowing Liquidity to Sustain Economic
Recovery and Asset Price Appreciation 15
China Macro View 37
Sector Views 43
Autos and Auto Parts 44
Banks 48
Consumer 52
Infrastructure Construction 55
Insurance and Diversified Financials 58
Internet & Online Gaming 61
Metals & Mining, Materials 66
Oil and Gas 71
Property 75
Small & Mid Cap 83
Telecoms 86
Transportation 90
Utilities 93
Companies 111
Anta Sports Products (2020.HK) 112
China Construction Bank (0939.HK) 114
C C Land Holdings (1224.HK) 116
China CITIC Bank (0998.HK) 118
Ctrip.com (CTRP.O) 120
Dongfeng Motor (0489.HK) 122
Hidili Industry (1393.HK) 124
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (1398.HK) 126
Shimao Property Holdings (0813.HK) 128
Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) 130
Tianjin Port Development Holdings (3382.HK) 132
Yanzhou Coal Mining (1171.HK) 134
Appendix A-1 136
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