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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国证券市场投资策略报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：142
【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Macroeconomic views .............................................................3
Market strategy.......................................................................30
Consumer................................................................................69
Energy ...................................................................................103
Financials: Banks.................................................................107
Technology: Hardware.........................................................113
Telecoms...............................................................................118
Transportation ......................................................................121
Utilities and infrastructure...................................................124
‘Views from the Bund’ is a monthly publication that gives clients a valueadded
view on China macro, strategy, and industry insights.
• Key investment theme: The Chinese market could be range-bound in
the short term. It could be affected by: (1) possible additional tightening
measures; (2) the continued slowdown in China’s money supply growth;
and (3) our belief that China may cut or slow down investment projects
later this year. On the other hand, the market could be boosted by the
possible appreciation of the Rmb as of 2Q FY10, and possible proconsumption
policies. We maintain our view that Chinese equities should
bottom out in late April or May 2010, based on our base-case scenario
that inflationary pressure should peak around summer. Despite the shortterm
risks, we continue to hold a medium-term positive view as China’s
shift away from investment in consumption should help re-rate Chinese
equities through reducing the risks from the investment-induced
overcapacity issue. China has been suffering from an unhealthy
imbalance, with the consumption/GDP ratio down from 50.8% in 1980 to
35.3% in 2008, and China’s investment/GDP ratio up from 36% in 2000
to 44% in 2008. Going forward, China has set on the transition from an
investment-driven economy to a consumption-driven economy. We
expect the government to focus on: (1) raising Chinese residents’
disposable income; and (2) building a well covered and developed social
safety network to help facilitate the above transition.
• What is changing: We upgraded Chinese banks from neutral to
overweight because of the attractive valuation after the correction, NIM
expansion, robust loan growth, and benign asset quality. We turned
positive on the insurance sector because: (1) life premium growth may
pick up in 2010; (2) China’s low penetration rate of life insurance; and
(3) China shifting away from investment to consumption.
• Information: NPC is re-iterating the stability/continuity of overall macro
policies and emphasizing medium-term economic growth re-balancing.
• China model portfolio adjustment: We cut telecoms’ and refineries’
positions in order to add banks, insurance and airlines. We are now
overweight on: (1) banks; (2) insurance; (3) consumer; (4) the defensive
growth basket (internet, gas, and healthcare, etc.); and (5) airlines and
paper. Meanwhile, we are underweight on: (1) property, (2) FAI-related
sectors; (3) telecom; and (4) refineries on margin squeeze concern.
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