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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月中国证券市场投资策略报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：34
【目录或简介】：
How will 2010 be different from 2009? Recent power output data (+17%
Y/Y in Oct-09 even though Oct-08 was not too weak at -2.2% Y/Y) seem to
support the view of a V-shape recovery in China’s domestic economy.
Against this, we believe the focus in 2010E for the sector might be (A)
continued positive surprises in the underlying demand situation and hence
frequent upward revision to our revenue forecast, (B) private sector capex
recovery might replace fiscal stimulus as the main source of EPS upgrade, (C)
scope for external sector to show improvement on a low base, and (D) reemergence
of bottlenecks in the coal supply market which might lead to more
general escalation in production costs for those with heavy variable costs.
• “GARP” + EPS upside + Avoid Margin Squeeze: Looking ahead, we
maintain GARP approach as the key investment strategy, but with an
increased focus on EPS upside potential ahead, and also favoring those with
lower variable cost % in their overall cost base. Those with sustainable GARP
angle include the gas utilities, railway contractors and China High Speed.
Toll road and port operators, together with gas (fuel cost pass through formula
expected) and water utilities are less susceptible to rising raw material costs.
Gas utilities, Zhejiang Expressway, China High Speed and the thermal
power equipment suppliers are likely to see more EPS upgrade potential.
• Pair trades: The four pair trades in our 17-Aug-09 report provided average
return of 17.9% (though driven mostly by 1 of the 4 pairs) until 11-Nov-09 (vs
+18% for HSCEI for the same period). Cumulatively from 22-Aug-08 when
we first launched this product, our recommended pair trades have provided net
return of 53.6% (vs +23.3% for HSCEI during the same period). Looking
ahead, given that we are only “fine-tuning” our investment strategy from a
pure GARP approach to one with slightly more emphasis on EPS upside
surprise, we are replacing 2 out of our 4 pairs recommended in Aug-09. Our
new pairs are long CHSTE-short CCCC, long Huaneng-short Datang, and
the replaced pairs are then long Harbin Power-short Huaneng and long
CRCC-short CCCC.
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