瑞士信贷：日本科技行业研究报告2009年4月

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Japan technology sector
SECTOR REVIEW
The changing landscape for PCs
■ Credit Suisse’s Asia technology team published a report, The changing
landscape for PCs, on 21 April. This discussed the potential for a new phase
of growth in the PC market, driven by the success of netbooks. We
summarize the report and highlight some implications for Japan’s technology
sector.
■ Overview: The dominant view within the markets is that PCs are no longer a
growth area. However, we see new growth opportunities from 2009, and
conclude that the PC market will stop being boring and again turn exciting.
■ New form factors, price points and sales channels: We regard 10-11-in
slim netbooks, 12-15-in CULV (Consumer Ultra Low Voltage) products and
“nettop” (low-priced desktops) products as new areas of growth in the PC
market. Potential changes in sales channels include a shift to targeting the
world’s 1bn 3G network subscribers and 171mn broadband-connected
households. We also expect the launch of a Chinese mobile PC clone
market to drive volume growth.
■ Changes in competitive landscape and implications for the supply
chain: We expect netbooks and the new segment of CULV and nettop to
bring dynamic change to PC brands. This suggests the potential for the
appearance of a challenger to the dominance of Wintel. Our top picks
through the supply chain are Acer and Asustek among the PC brands, and
Delta and Unimicron among the device manufacturers.
Implications for Japan’s technology sector
■ Electronic components (Itaya): The increased popularity of netbooks is
positive for HDD-related stocks in two ways: (1) 70% of netbooks currently
have internal HDDs, creating volume demand, and (2) we expect
dissatisfaction among netbook users about storage volumes (due to the
limited capacity including SSD) to prompt expanded demand for external
HDDs. Research by IDC shows the market for external HDDs increased
41% YoY in 2008 to 62mn units, and is set to exceed 100mn units in 2010.
We also believe HDD producers will benefit substantially from the tendency
for consumers to choose large-capacity, low price-per-GB products, as it is
easy to calculate capacity price for external HDDs. We favor Nidec, TDK and
Nitto Denko.

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