瑞士信贷：菲律宾电信行业研究报告2009年4月

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We believe that both the competitive and regulatory risks surrounding
the cellular industry are reducing. The third player could become less
aggressive due to financial constraints (16.2x net debt/EBITDA). We
see limited risk for any meaningful new player and the pressure for
negative regulatory changes is subsiding.
■
The Philippines’ real cellular penetration rate is 66.5%, and our
affordability model suggests that the real cellular subscriber growth
could begin to slow. We project industry service revenue growth of
5.3% YoY in FY09, before slowing down to a CAGR of 3.4% for FY09-12.
Wireless broadband could become the next growth area.
■
Given its scale and strength, we expect PLDT to sustain its solid
performance. PLDT remains under-geared at 0.5x FY09E net
debt/EBITDA, allowing it to pay an additional 15.4-21.1% yield, on top
of its FY09E regular dividend yield of 7.0%, if it gears up to 1.0-1.5x net
debt/EBITDA by FY10E. We assume coverage on it with an
OUTPERFORM and a target price of P2,830 (30.1% potential upside).
■
FY08 was a disappointing year for Globe, but its problems have been
solved, and Globe is set to recover in FY09E. Globe also has the ability
to payout an additional 6.6-24.4% special dividend yield by FY10, on
top of its 8.2% FY09E regular dividend yield. We assume coverage on
Globe Telecom with an OUTPERFORM and a target price of P1,350
(63.6% potential upside).

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 瑞士信贷 行业研究 电信行业 研究报告 信贷 电信 瑞士 菲律宾