汇丰银行：科威特银行业经济研究报告2009年5月

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The effect of the stimulus plan is
uncertain; banks continue to forecast a
weak 2009
􀀗 The appetite for private sector lending
remains low; banks exhibit heightened
risk aversion
􀀗We downgrade NBK to Underweight (V)
from Neutral (V), retain TP of KWD1.01;
cut CBK’s TP to KWD0.61 from
KWD0.66 and retain Underweight rating
Optimism is hard to find
The Kuwait government has proposed a stimulus programme
to increase bank lending to the private sector. The
programme would also protect banks from potential shortfalls
in existing loan loss provisions. However what effect this
plan will have is still uncertain, and banks are reluctant to
revise their weak outlook for 2009. Although the government
proposes to guarantee 50% of new loans and contribute to the
deficit in provisions, the mechanism of these guarantees is
not yet clear. Restrictive conditions may be placed on those
banks that choose to take part, and therefore Kuwaiti banks
might be unwilling to subscribe to the stimulus plan. Central
bank data for April 2009, just released, supports the weak
outlook, with credit volumes falling c1% m-o-m.
Kuwait banks expensive – downgrading NBK: We
maintain NBK’s KWD1.01 target price, and downgrade to
Underweight (V) from Neutral (V) due to the recent rally. We
maintain our Underweight rating on CBK, cutting our target
price to KWD0.61 from KWD0.66 as we have reduced our
forecasts. We believe Kuwait banks trade at expensive
multiples relative to our MENA banks average, given the
risks and the relatively uncertain environment in which they
operate. NBK trades at 2010e P/NAV of 2.1x and PE of
11.7x and CBK at P/NAV of 2.4x and PE of 15.3x, while the
MENA (ex-Saudi) banks’ P/NAV is 1.6x and PE is 10.1x.

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