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■ The blend of a significantly looser fiscal policy espoused by President-elect Donald Trump in combination with our forecast for a tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy provides a textbook scenario for US currency strength—typically detrimental to emerging equity investing. In combination with our anticipated cooling of the Chinese residential real estate market, this will likely serve to restrict absolute and relative performance dynamics for emerging markets in 2017.
■ Nevertheless, we maintain a recommended overweight stance on emerging markets in a global equities portfolio (albeit advocating a smaller above-benchmark stance than a year ago) with an MSCI EM index price target of 920 indicating 8% potential US dollar return by year-end 2017. We identify eight positive attributes for the 2017 emerging market investment case while warning of five credible risks to the narrative.
■ We continue to believe in a sustained outperformance of value as a style within emerging markets, as growth loses its scarcity premium in a more broad-based recovery, incentivizing investors to seek cheaper assets offering similar growth rates.
■ We recommend overweight positions on China, Korea, Brazil and Indonesia, funded by underweights on Taiwan, India, South Africa, Malaysia, Thailand, Chile and Poland. We have a benchmark stance on Russia, Mexico, Philippines and Turkey.
20161202-CREDIT_SUISSE-GLOBAL_EM_EQUITY_STRATEGY：2017_OUTLOOK：STAYING_THE_COUR.pdf
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