摩根大通：欧洲传媒行业研究报告2009年6月

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Table of Contents
Q109 reporting season: more positive than negative
surprises ...................................................................................3
H209 is key for FY09 EPS...........................................................................................3
Which media stocks are more geared to an economic
recovery? ..................................................................................6
Stock’s attractiveness in an economic upturn scenario: the quant screen. ...................7
Advertising outlook: we expect better H209 than H109 ........9
We continue to expect the adspend recession to reach the trough in H109 and to
improve from H209 ...................................................................................................10
What has changed since our previous Media Strategy and
Data Watch published on 13 May 09?...................................12
The Media sector is now trading at a small discount to the overall market on P/E1012
Media cyclicals continue to trade at a premium to defensive stocks .........................13
Media has started to underperform the market, driven by the still important weight of
defensive stocks .........................................................................................................15
Newspapers and FTA TV are now the best performing sub-sectors..........................16
Individual stocks YTD performance: Johnston Press still best performer, SEAT still
worst performer..........................................................................................................17
Individual stocks: What has happened since we published our latest Data Watch on
May 13th? ..................................................................................................................18
Media cyclicals vs. defensives: the discrepancy has increased since our latest Data
Watch report ..............................................................................................................20
Performance ...........................................................................25
Earnings..................................................................................26
Valuations ...............................................................................27

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