国际商业观察：中国09年3季度食物与饮料行业报告

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【名称及出版时间】：BMI_China_Food_and_Drink_Report_Q3_2009
【来源】：国际商业观察
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：88
【目录或简介】：

ONTENTS
Executive Summary .........................................................................................................................................7
SWOT Analysis.................................................................................................................................................8
          China Food Industry SWOT................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
          China Drink Industry SWOT.................................................................................................................................................................................. 9
          China Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT ........................................................................................................................................................ 10
Business Environment ..................................................................................................................................11
    Asia Pacific Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings ...................................................................................................................................... 11
          Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings Q3 2009........................................................................................................ 14
          China Food & Drink Business Environment Rating ............................................................................................................................................ 15
     Macroeconomic Outlook........................................................................................................................................................................................... 16
          China - Economic Activity ................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Food.................................................................................................................................................................19
     Industry Forecast Scenario....................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
         Food Consumption............................................................................................................................................................................................... 19
          Table: China Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2013.................................................................................... 20
          Canned Food ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 20
          Table: China Processed Food Volume/Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2013 ......................................................................... 21
         Instant Noodles.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 21
          Confectionery....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 22
          Table: China Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical & Forecast Sales Data, 2006-2013 .................................................................... 23
          Trade ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23
          Table: China Food & Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts........................................................................................................ 24
     Industry Developments.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 25
     Market Overview ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
         Food Production.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 31
         Instant Noodles.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
          Confectionery....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
          Trade ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32
         Agriculture........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
         Rice Production ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
         Dairy Industry...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 35
          Table: China Dairy Production & Consumption (‘000 Tonnes) .......................................................................................................................... 37
          Organics .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 37
Drink ................................................................................................................................................................38
     Industry Forecast Scenario....................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
         Hot Drinks ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
          Table: China Hot Drinks Value Sales (US$mn) – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2013............................................................................... 38
         Alcoholic Drinks.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 39
          Table: China Beverage Industry Production and Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2013 ............................................ 39
          Soft Drinks........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
          Table: China Beverage Industry Sub-Sectors – Historical & Forecast Sales Data. 2006-2013........................................................................... 40
     Industry Developments.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 41
     Market Overview ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45
          Soft Drinks........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45

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关键词：行业报告 饮料行业 asia pacific Developments environment 商业 行业 饮料 食物

Table: Estimated Soft Drinks Sales Breakdown in China, Value Sales (%) ......................................................................................................... 47
          Hot Drinks ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47
         Alcoholic Drinks.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 48
          Beer ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 48
          Wine..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 48
          Spirits................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 49
          Table: Estimated Alcoholic Drinks Sales Breakdown in China, Value Sales (%) ................................................................................................ 49
Mass Grocery Retail.......................................................................................................................................50
     Industry Forecast Scenario....................................................................................................................................................................................... 50
          Table: China MGR Retail Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006-2013................................................................................................ 51
          Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) – Historical Data & Forecasts....................................................................................................... 51
     Industry Developments.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 52
     Market Overview ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 56
         Leading MGR Players ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 58
          Table: Structure Of China's Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2002-2007............................................................ 59
          Table: Structure Of China's Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales By Format (US$bn), 2002-2007.................................................................... 60
          Table: Annual Average Store Sales By Format (US$mn)..................................................................................................................................... 60
Competitive Landscape.................................................................................................................................61
     Key Players............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 61
          Food and Drink ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 61
          Table: Key Players in China Food & Drink Sector – 2008.................................................................................................................................. 61
         Mass Grocery Retail ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 62
          Table: Key Players in China's Mass Grocery Retail Sector – 2008 ..................................................................................................................... 62
     Company Analysis..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 63
          Food .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 63
          Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding........................................................................................................................................................................ 63
          China Foods Ltd (formerly China National Cereals Oils And Foodstuffs) .......................................................................................................... 64
          China Mengniu Dairy Company .......................................................................................................................................................................... 65
          Drink.................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 66
          Tsingtao ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 66
          Wahaha................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 67
          Kweichow Moutai Co........................................................................................................................................................................................... 68
         Mass Grocery Retail ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 69
          Carrefour............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 69
         Lianhua Supermarket Holdings ........................................................................................................................................................................... 70
Appendix .........................................................................................................................................................71
Commodity Price Forecasts..........................................................................................................................71
     Corn.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 71
          Table: Corn, 2005-2010....................................................................................................................................................................................... 71
     Soybean..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 71
          Table: Soybean, 2005-2010 ................................................................................................................................................................................. 72
     Rice........................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 72
          Table: Rice, 2005-2010........................................................................................................................................................................................ 72
     Wheat........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 72
          Table: Wheat, 2005-2010..................................................................................................................................................................................... 73
     Cocoa........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 73
          Table: Cocoa, 2005-2010 .................................................................................................................................................................................... 74
     Coffee. 74

Table: Coffee, 2005-2010 .................................................................................................................................................................................... 74
     Milk........................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 74
          Table: Milk, 2005-2010 ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 75
     Sugar ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 75
          Table: Sugar, 2005-2010 ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 75
Country Snapshot: China Demographic Data.............................................................................................76
          Section 1: Population........................................................................................................................................................................................... 76
          Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030........................................................................................................................................................ 76
          Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................... 77
          Section 2: Education and Healthcare .................................................................................................................................................................. 77
          Table: Education, 2002-2005 .............................................................................................................................................................................. 77
          Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030........................................................................................................................................................................ 77
          Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power................................................................................................................................................... 78
          Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006.......................................................................................................................................................... 78
          Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)................................................................................................................................................ 78
          Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2005-2012 ................................................................................................................................. 79
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings ............................................................................................80
     Ratings Methodology ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 80
     Ratings Overview...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 80
         Ratings System..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 80
         Indicators............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 80
         Limits Of Potential Returns.................................................................................................................................................................................. 81
         Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns........................................................................................................................................................... 82
          Weighting............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 83
          Weighting............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 83
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary ...........................................................................................................84
     Food & Drink ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 84
     Mass Grocery Retail ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 84
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing .................................................................................................86
     How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts............................................................................................................................................................... 86
     Sourcing.................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 87

Executive Summary
               With recently released figures showing that in Q109 the Chinese economy grew at its slowest pace since
               quarterly records began in 1992, many food and drink producers continue to worry about the impact of
               this slowdown of their sales. Nevertheless, despite the slowing economic growth, China remains an
               unmissable opportunity for expansion-orientated companies, as discussed here in BMI’s China Food &
              Drink Report for Q309. Tellingly, this quarter witnessed a number of major merger and acquisition stories
               in the country’s high growth drinks industry.
               In March the country’s leading brewer by volume, China Resources Snow Breweries (Snow), acquired
               Hupo Brewery located in Shandong province, China for US$42mn. The brewer said that it plans to
               spend US$8mn on technology upgrades at the existing brewing facilities, which will enable it to increase
               beer production by 3mn hectoliters. This was followed by Snow’s April acquisition of Shandong-based
               Amber Breweries in a deal worth CNY285mn (US$41.7mn). Clearly, Snow is ramping up investment in
               a bid to become a truly national player in China's still-fragmented beer industry and to beat fierce rival
               Tsingtao. These acquisitions will allow the company to build its footprint in what is a high consumption
               province, and indicates that while brewers have traditionally stuck to their home provinces, this trend is
               changing along with growing levels of competition.
               In another deal that was closely watched by those in the industry, following months of speculation, in
               March the Chinese Ministry of Commerce finally rejected US soft drink giant The Coca-Cola
               Company's (TCCC) US$2.4bn bid for local juice major Huiyuan Juice Group. Many industry insiders
               expected the deal to go through, despite the slow progress, as the government could have used this
               acquisition to send a strong signal about China’s new anti-monopoly law. However, the merger was
               rejected on the grounds that it was anticompetitive, and would hurt small-scale local juice producers,
               potentially pushing up juice prices and limiting choices for consumers. Although the food and drink
               industry is not thought to be of national strategic importance, Huiyuan Juice is an iconic household name
               in China and there was thought to be quite strong consumer sentiment about it potentially falling into
               foreign hands.
               As the largest ever international takeover of a Chinese firm, the deal was seen as a test of China's recently
               revised competition law. However, as demands for protectionism have been rising globally on the back of
               the financial crisis, it began to look increasingly unlikely that the deal would go through. The entire
               process was followed very closely by those companies keen to exploit the immense opportunity presented
               by the vast and high growth Chinese market, especially those keen to enter inorganically via acquisitions
               and those preferring to take full ownership of Chinese enterprises rather than smaller stakes.

谢谢谢。。。。。。。。。。。。。